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# Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth Is Trading Nothing Like The S&P 500 (Tomorrow, 2 PM ET)
- URL: https://www.leadlagreport.com/anti-ai-why-efficient-growth-is-trading-nothing-like-the-s-p-500-tomorrow-2-pm-et/
- Published: 2026-08-04T00:56:14.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-04T00:56:14.000Z
- Description: Live tomorrow with Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital. Factor dispersion is at a decade-plus wide. Twenty of the last 38 trading days saw 110bps+ differentials. High Vol is beating Low Vol 131% to 12%. This is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing.
- Author: Michael A. Gayed, CFA

The Anti-AI trade is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing — quietly.

Tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET, join Seth Cogswell (Founder, Running Oak Capital) and Michael A. Gayed, CFA on why Efficient Growth has been trading like the involuntary Anti-AI portfolio, why hyperscaler earnings may be the Grand Illusion of this cycle, and why the widest factor dispersion in over a decade is opportunity, not a signal to chase.

[**Register Now →**](https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN%5FbVsrGpoMTm-qcMAYug3IeQ?ref=leadlagreport.com)

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### The Market Is Speaking

- 20 of the last 38 trading days: 110bps+ differential vs. S&P 500
- Efficient Growth vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight correlation: 0.77
- 14 months: highly questionable factors (high vol, unprofitable, low quality, meme) beat common-sense factors by \~3x
- High Vol beat Low Vol 131% to 12%
- Money-losers beat money-makers 2x

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### The Grand Illusion

- Revenue overstated: paper profits, circular financing, tariff refunds
- Expenses understated as depreciation stretched 3 to 5 years
- Margins \~40% higher than the software-dominated decade
- Hyperscaler cash piles gone, cash flow negative, debt at records

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### What Advisors Take Away

- Explain factor dispersion without triggering performance-chasing
- Why 14 months of nonsense is sow time, not signal
- Efficient Growth: 88% downside capture, 92% upside capture (Sept 2013 - June 2026)
- Downside protection: audited 2018, 2022; hypothetical 2008, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1990
- Benchmark-agnostic construction in a passive-heavy book

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**When:** Tuesday, August 4, 2:00-3:00 PM ET  
**CE Credit:** 1 CFP CE Credit Approved | Investment Planning | Intermediate  
**Sponsor:** Running Oak Capital  
**Format:** Live on Zoom, replay to all registrants

[**Reserve Your Seat →**](https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN%5FbVsrGpoMTm-qcMAYug3IeQ?ref=leadlagreport.com)

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*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements on the AI trade and hyperscalers reflect Running Oak Capital opinion, not fact.*