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# The Fed Just Spoke. Now Hear What They Won't Tell You.
- URL: https://www.leadlagreport.com/the-fed-just-spoke-now-hear-what/
- Published: 2026-03-19T14:35:52.000Z
- Updated: 2026-03-19T14:35:52.000Z
- Description: Jay Hatfield on why real inflation is already at 1.9%, the oil shock timeline, and where the S&P 500 is headed — TODAY at 1 PM ET
- Author: Michael A. Gayed, CFA
- Tags: Newsletter, #substack, #substack-type-newsletter, #substack-access-everyone, #Import 2026-07-17 08:13

**WEBINAR TODAY — 1:00 PM ET**

[**REGISTER HERE — FREE**](https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN%5FNmDf%5FTCsRSOfKLzva%5F6Gkw?ref=leadlagreport.com)

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/b8/9e/b89e006c-adc9-4384-b804-e802e23b544e/content/images/substack-post-media-s3-amazonaws-com/public/images/1ee855f3-0d80-4d06-89ed-6c0cc85bb89f_1536x1024.png)

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The Fed just made its latest decision. The market is digesting it. And most of what you’re hearing right now is noise.

Here’s what’s not noise:

The Fed’s 2% inflation target is based on a deeply flawed PCE index. The shelter component is delayed by two years relative to market rents. Imputed financial services prices are completely disconnected from reality — when stocks go up, the BEA says you’re paying higher management fees even though management fees haven’t changed. That single distortion raised year-over-year core PCE by 0.5%.

The real number? **Core PCE adjusted for market prices is 1.9%.** Not 3.1%.

That’s not a rounding error. That’s the difference between “rates need to stay high” and “the Fed should be cutting to neutral right now.”

Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, built a measure called Realflation that strips out the noise. And his read is clear: the Fed should be moving to 2.75% as soon as oil prices give them cover.

**Today at 1 PM ET, Jay and I are going live to break all of this down.**

This isn’t a generic post-Fed recap. We’re going deep on:

- **Why PCE is broken** — the specific imputed prices that are inflating the number and misleading the Fed
- **The oil shock math** — worst case $140 (Strait of Hormuz closure), base case $100, and why we expect sub-$70 within a month
- **Private credit panic is overdone** — even the absolute worst-case loss rate of 10% means BDCs and alt managers are oversold by at least 20%
- **The AI short theses are inconsistent** — you can’t simultaneously argue cloud companies will get bad returns on AI capex AND that AI will destroy every software business
- **Why mid-April is the turning point** — earnings season, oil clarity, and the end of tax-season weakness set up a power rally
- **S&P 500 year-end target: 8,000** — with 3 rate cuts still likely once oil normalizes

We’ll also discuss specific investment strategies for this environment — income approaches, risk management, and how to position for what’s coming.

**This is CFP® Board CE Credit Eligible.**

If you manage money or advise clients, you need to hear this before the close today. The window between now and mid-April earnings season is where the mispricing is. After that, the market figures it out.

**The webinar starts in hours. Not days. Hours.**

[**REGISTER NOW — IT’S FREE**](https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN%5FNmDf%5FTCsRSOfKLzva%5F6Gkw?ref=leadlagreport.com)

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*Sponsored by Infrastructure Capital Advisors*

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*This is not investment advice. The Lead-Lag Report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.*