> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.leadlagreport.com/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Today at 2:30 PM ET - Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth Is Behaving Nothing Like the S&P 500 Right Now - URL: https://www.leadlagreport.com/today-at-2-30-pm-et-anti-ai-why-efficient-growth-is-behaving-nothing-like-the-s-p-500-right-now/ - Published: 2026-07-29T12:31:10.000Z - Updated: 2026-07-29T12:31:10.000Z - Description: Live at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital. The involuntary Anti-AI trade, the Grand Illusion of hyperscaler earnings, and why 14 months of factor nonsense may be sow time. 1 CFP CE Credit Approved. - Author: Michael A. Gayed, CFA - Tags: Lead-Lag Live, Webinar, Running Oak, CFP CE Credit Live today at 2:30 PM ET with Seth Cogswell, Founder and Managing Partner of Running Oak Capital. The Anti-AI trade is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing - quietly. Over the last 38 trading days, 20 of them had more than 110 basis points of return differential versus the S&P 500\. The correlation between Running Oak's Efficient Growth strategy and the S&P 500 Equal Weight has dropped to 0.77\. Historically these move together. Right now they do not. Over the last 14 months, the "highly questionable" factor basket - high volatility, high beta, unprofitable, low quality, meme - has beaten the "common sense" basket of profitability, quality, growth, and low volatility by nearly 3x. High Volatility beat Low Volatility 131% to 12%. Companies that lose money beat companies that make money by 2x. Reddit outperformed profitable, high-quality, low-volatility stocks. Something is broken. Or something is opportunity. ### The Grand Illusion Seth's argument is that current hyperscaler earnings are structurally misleading: - Revenue historically overstated by paper profits, circular financing, and tariff refunds - Expenses historically understated as depreciation schedules extended from 3 to 5 years - Profit margins nearly 40% higher than the software-dominated margins of the last decade - even though asset-heavy margins have always historically been lower than software - Hyperscalers no longer hold historic cash piles - Cash flow has turned negative - Debt issuance is at record levels If any one of those is right, the AI trade sits on a foundation that cannot compound the way the multiple suggests it will. ### Why This Is Sow Time Running Oak's Efficient Growth strategy has delivered 88% downside capture with 92% upside capture from September 2013 through June 2026\. Audited outperformance in 2018 and 2022\. Hypothetical outperformance in 2008, 2002, 2001, 2000, and 1990 - every year US equity markets were down since 1989. Seth's framing: "There is a time to reap and a time to sow. It is sow time." Today's 60-minute session is the case for why factor dispersion at this magnitude, this late in a cycle, with these fundamentals underneath the leaders, is not a signal to chase - it is an opportunity to reposition. ### What Advisors Take Away - How to explain factor dispersion to clients without triggering performance-chasing behavior - Why 14 months of nonsense outperformance is sow time, not a signal - The Efficient Growth framework: Growth + Value + Managed Volatility - Historical downside protection across every US equity down year since 1989 - How to position benchmark-agnostic construction inside a passive-heavy book ### Details **When:** Wednesday, July 29, 2026 - 2:30-3:30 PM ET **Where:** Live on Zoom - Replay sent to all registrants **Credit:** 1 CFP CE Credit Approved - Investment Planning - Intermediate **Sponsored by:** Running Oak Capital **Register:** [https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN\_bVsrGpoMTm-qcMAYug3IeQ](https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN%5FbVsrGpoMTm-qcMAYug3IeQ?ref=leadlagreport.com) Michael A. Gayed, CFA Publisher, The Lead-Lag Report Founder, Lead-Lag Media --- *Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Statements regarding the sustainability of the AI trade or forward-looking claims on hyperscalers reflect the opinion of Running Oak Capital and should not be relied upon as statements of fact. This is not investment advice.*