The July inflation data may have cleared the deck for a September rate cut, but the overall picture is more concerning. The core rate is back above 3% for the first time since February and had its biggest month-over-month increase since January. Obviously, this is well above the Fed’s target, but it doesn’t seem to matter for a central bank that seems convinced that it needs to ease monetary conditions with a 3% core inflation rate and a 3% GDP growth rate and a 4.2% unemployment rate. You wouldn’t think those conditions would require looser policy conditions, but such is the world we live in.
The inflation reading is the concerning piece. It’s clearly trending in the wrong direction and inflation was the one thing that caused the 2022 stock/bond bear market. While it’s unlikely we’re going back to 9% inflation rates, it does present a higher risk scenario for stocks. Long-term Treasury yields have been moving higher in August, which would be consistent with rising inflation risk. The market is completely overleveraged, which could easily exacerbate any downside moves. Investors seem over-infatuated with the likelihood of multiple rate cuts ahead and are ignoring some real portfolio risks right in front of them.
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