Junk Bonds Split in Two. CCC Spreads Are Wider Than April 2025.
CCC spreads hit 13.56% on Oct. 23, wider than the April 2025 shock, while BB barely moved. The junk market is no longer one market.
Hires, Quits and Layoffs Are All Below 2019. The Job Market Stopped Moving.
Quits are 18% below 2019, hiring 15% below and layoffs 17% below. Jobless claims are at 194,000. The labor market is not weak or strong. It is still.
Defensives Beat the S&P 500 by 8% in a Month. Eleven of 15 Times, a Drawdown Followed.
Utilities and staples both beat a flat S&P 500 by more than 7% in a month. In 11 of 15 prior cases an 8%+ drawdown followed within three months. Credit has not confirmed yet.
The Index Stopped Buying Itself. Now It Borrows to Build.
AI spenders are cutting buybacks and borrowing at record pace. Investment-grade spreads are at their widest since March. Why the marginal buyer of the largest stocks has changed and what credit is saying about the AI build.
The First Hike Since 2023 Just Landed. The Nasdaq's Volatility Market Hasn't Repriced Yet. TDAX Seeks 130% of TDAQ's Daily Performance — With Weekly Distributions.
How TDAX, the TDAQ LIFT ETF, provides daily leveraged exposure to TappAlpha's Nasdaq-100 daily covered call strategy into a hiking cycle — and what a daily leveraged fund requires of the investor who uses it.
The World's Bull Market Was One Trade. Last Week It Sold Off Like One.
The AI hardware trade in Korea, Taiwan and Japan sold off together last week while India held steady. Why the yen carry trade and back-to-back Fed and Bank of Japan decisions make the coming week the real test.
Fusion Gold Is a Headline Today and a Price Ceiling Someday
A start-up says it turned mercury into gold. The claim is unverified, the economics are unpublished, and gold was falling on real yields long before. A look at production, cost, scale and the lab-grown diamond analogy.
The Credit Signal: Utilities Just Flipped the JOJO.Index to Credit-Off
Weekly read on the JOJO.Index credit signal: it moved to credit-off as high yield spreads rose 80 bps from their 12-month low.
Treasuries Are a Hedge Again. Credit and Oil Explain Why.
Long Treasuries rose while stocks fell, credit spreads widened and Brent hit $116.72. The stock-bond correlation turned negative for the first time since July. What the move says about growth, inflation and the next two weeks.
The Warsh Test, Round Two: Hiking Into a Bond Rally
The Fed promised one more hike. Oil, jobs, credit spreads and a sudden bond rally now argue for patience. What the dots, the 2-year yield and breakevens say heading into the Oct. 28 decision.
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The Fed Is Hiking Into a Credit Boom. Business Loans Are Up 10%.
Business loans are growing 10% a year, the fastest since March 2023, while banks have stopped tightening and the Fed raises rates. Two readings of the same number.