The Board Turns Defensive, and a 3.7% Cushion Decides What It Means
Three of four signals read risk-off for the first time since March. Since 2008, a board this defensive with the trend intact rose a quarter later 25 of 30 times.
The Labor Force Did Not Shrink by a Million. A Census Update Did.
The published labor force fell 999,000 in a year. On BLS comparable data it grew about 279,000, and unemployment fell to 4.2%.
Mortgage Rates Topped 7%. Housing Starts Are the Slowest Since 2020.
The 30-year mortgage rate rose from 5.98% in February to 7.40% in October, and housing starts slowed to their weakest three-month pace since July 2020 while permits held up.
The Credit Signal: Week Two of Credit-Off as Utilities Jump 11.05% on the S&P 500
Weekly read on the JOJO.Index credit signal: still credit-off, utilities up 11.05% vs. the S&P 500 in four weeks, and high yield spreads 66 bps off their 12-month low.
Corporate Bonds Yield 5.82%. Only 0.88 of It Pays for Credit Risk.
Investment-grade bonds yield 5.82%, but only 0.88 points is credit spread. Bond buyers are paid mostly for rates, not corporate risk.
The Fed Hiked in September. The Money Supply Grew the Fastest Since 2022.
M2 grew 5.71% from a year earlier in September, the fastest since May 2022, while bank reserves fell $128 billion in two weeks as the Treasury's cash account filled.
Oil Rose 13.6% in October. Gold Fell 6.5%. The Market Is Betting on the Central Banks.
Brent rose 13.6% in October. Gold fell 6.5%. Markets are pricing the Iran war as a central bank problem, and that has turned gold into a funding source.
The Nasdaq Just Had Its Worst Day Since June. This 7% Yielder Owns The Grid It Runs On
BUI pays 6.91% monthly from income and gains, not return of capital, while the AI trade wobbles. The catch: five years of flat price.
AMLP Pays 7.6% And Has Raised Its Payout 45% Since 2022. The Tax Bill Comes First
AMLP yields 7.6% on a payout that grew from $0.71 to $1.03 a quarter since 2022. The structure, the tax drag and the concentration explained.
A 14% Yield That Kept 80% Of The Nasdaq's Upside: Inside QQQI
QQQI pays a 14.28% distribution rate and captured 80% of QQQ's up months, but on Friday's 3.5% Nasdaq-100 drop it fell 3.29%.
Brazil Lost 20% in a Day. The Rest of Emerging Markets Barely Noticed.
Brazil's ETF fell 19.8% in a day after Lula's upset win. Emerging markets fell 0.31%. A crowded trade, a contained shock and the Bank of Japan next.
GDP Grew 3.4%. Real Income Fell. Americans Are Spending Their Savings.
Q3 GDP grew 3.4%, but real disposable income fell 0.27% in September and the saving rate dropped to 3.8%, its lowest since October 2022.