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The Repricing Arrived. What The JOJO Signal Is Showing Now

In July, the setup looked like the calm before a repricing. In October, the repricing arrived. Credit spreads widened by roughly 28 percent in a month, volatility spiked and bonds sold off across the curve. This piece looks at what moved, what the JOJO framework is designed to do in...

Inflation's Second Wave Is Here, And The Curve Is Still Flat

The question I kept returning to this year was what credit investors should do if a second wave of inflation arrived alongside a flat curve. It arrived. Headline inflation is back at 3.7%, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate, and credit spreads have started to widen. The...

The Treasury's Average Borrowing Rate Hit 3.57%. The 10-Year Is Still 1.3 Points Higher.

The average rate on marketable Treasury debt is the highest since 2008, interest now outspends defense and the gap to market yields says the bill keeps rising.

The Credit Signal: High Yield Spreads Hit a 12-Month High in Week Three of Credit-Off

Weekly read on the JOJO.Index credit signal: credit-off for a third week, utilities up 10.28% vs. the S&P 500 in four weeks, and high yield spreads at a 12-month high of 348 bps.

Jobless Claims Match the Lowest Since 1969. Sentiment Is Below 2008.

Initial claims fell to 189,000 while Michigan sentiment sits below its 2008 low. Pay is trailing prices by almost a point, and that explains the gap.

Business Loan Demand Fell 28 Points. Banks Barely Changed Their Terms.

The Fed's loan officer survey shows the first drop in business loan demand in over a year, while standards for larger firms stayed basically unchanged.

Households Saved 3.8% of Their Income in September. Card Balances Did the Rest.

The saving rate fell to its lowest since October 2022 as real income dropped, and revolving credit jumped $16.3 billion in one month.

Copper Says the 10-Year Is Headed Higher. Bonds Disagree.

The copper to gold ratio is up 48% since its February low, and the 10-year yield rose 95 basis points with it. In October the ratio rose 7% while the 10-year fell 31 basis points.

The Best Six Months Start in a Midterm Year. The Fed Is the Catch.

November to April after a midterm election has been positive 19 of 19 times since 1950. When the Fed was hiking going in, gains were smaller and the dips along the way were deeper.

Chip Stocks Fell 7.2% in a Day. The Low Usually Comes Later.

The chip index fell 7.2% on October 30, its third 7% drop of 2026. In 44 of 48 past cases since 1994, it traded lower within three months, even when it later recovered.

The S&P 500 Fell in October. The Average Stock Rose 5%.

RSP returned 4.95% in October while SPY lost 0.91%, the second-widest monthly margin for equal weight since 2003. The market's leadership got wider.

Workers Kept 53% of Business Output Last Quarter. That Is the Lowest Since 1947.

Productivity rose 3.6% and labor costs fell in the third quarter, while the labor share of output hit 53.0%, the lowest on record.