Long Treasuries rose while stocks fell, credit spreads widened and Brent hit $116.72. The stock-bond correlation turned negative for the first time since July. What the move says about growth, inflation and the next two weeks.
The Fed promised one more hike. Oil, jobs, credit spreads and a sudden bond rally now argue for patience. What the dots, the 2-year yield and breakevens say heading into the Oct. 28 decision.
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Business loans are growing 10% a year, the fastest since March 2023, while banks have stopped tightening and the Fed raises rates. Two readings of the same number.
The mortgage rate rose 113 basis points in a year and the 10-year yield rose 115, so the gap barely changed. Over the last five weeks, half the jump was spread.
XLK/SPY drops to +1.92 sigma in eleven sessions while JNK/GOVT holds above +1.0 sigma. Eleven comparable credit slips say the level, not the month, is the signal.
How a daily 0DTE covered call strategy on the S&P 500 seeks to generate monthly distributions in a market shaped by the first rate hike since 2023, a 5.28% 10-year yield, and a still-compressed VIX.
The 10-year yield rose 97 basis points this year, and 87 of them were real yield. Oil is up 78%, yet 10-year inflation expectations moved 10 basis points.
The VIX rose 21.4% on a 1.1% stock decline, a combination seen on only four days in three years. High yield credit spreads have been saying the same thing since September 22.
The Nasdaq set a record on October 5 while the Russell 2000 sat 8.6% below its August peak. The index is not diverging from the economy. It is diverging from the price of money.
The yen is weak, Japanese yields are near 3 percent, and the carry trade question that matters is who has to sell.
XLK/SPY eases to +2.09 sigma, JNK/GOVT logs its first negative month, and utilities end a ten-week losing streak in a hot-CPI week.