The Largest BDC In America Pays 10%. Its Book Value Just Ticked Down
ARCC's $29.5 billion book pays $0.48 a quarter, but core EPS is $0.47 and NAV slipped to $19.59.
The Most Expensive Money of the Year Hides Inside the Cheapest Stocks
The 10-year climbed from 4.24 to 5.25 percent this year. Small caps already did the math: a -0.54 monthly correlation between rates and the Russell 2000, and an 11-point gap to the Nasdaq 100 since July.
Four Central Banks Went Four Ways This Month. Every Long End Went the Same Way.
The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ all hiked in September, the BoE held, and China eased. The 10-year ends of the US, Germany and Japan all climbed anyway. The risk being priced is fiscal, not monetary.
JPMorgan's $44 Billion Nasdaq Income Machine Pays 13%. Read The Fine Print
JEPQ's 13.32% 30-day SEC yield is option premium, not a coupon. What the income machine sells to pay you.
A Market Divided: Two Signals Shout Risk, Two Whisper Caution
The S&P 500 sits 7.36% above its 200-day average and utilities just made new lows, but gold outran lumber by nineteen points over thirteen weeks and long bonds led August. Two risk-on, two risk-off: the split itself is the signal.
The Shock Absorber Is Gone
The mortgage-to-Treasury spread compressed from 320 basis points to about 185, in line with its 20-year average, just as the 10-year broke to 5.18%, its highest since 2007. Every basis point now lands on the buyer.
The Delinquency Cycle Already Turned
Bank card delinquencies peaked at 3.22% in mid-2024 and have fallen five straight quarters to 2.85%. The consumer crack everyone braced for happened, quietly, and ended while nobody repriced it.
The Eight Trillion Dollar Myth
Money market funds hold a record $8.44 trillion and the reverse repo facility has drained to zero. The cash is not dry powder waiting to buy stocks. It is the plumbing of the bill market.
The Bond Market Never Believed In Three And A Half Percent
The one-year Treasury yields 62 basis points above the fed funds midpoint, and everything from two to ten years sits near five percent. The market is pricing a return to where the cycle began.
A Tax-Free 8.5% Monthly Check Built From 76-Cent Bonds And 41% Leverage
Nuveen's NMZ pays an 8.5% tax-free monthly check from investment income, using 41% leverage and a 17-year duration. The income is clean; the structure is the risk.
An 11.7% Junk Yield Where A Quarter Of The Check Is Your Own Money
BlackRock's HYT pays $0.0779 monthly, an 11.7% yield at its widest discount in a year. But about a quarter of the check is return of capital.
This 15.6% Yielder Trades At 62 Cents On The Dollar. The Dollar Keeps Shrinking.
FS KKR's new variable distribution annualizes to 15.6% at a 38% discount to NAV. The catch: the NAV itself has fallen 25% in ten quarters.