Rescheduled to Today at 12 PM ET, The Agriculture Allocation Nobody's Crowded Into
The Teucrium agriculture webinar with Jake Hanley moved to today, Friday August 14 at 12:00 PM ET. Same Zoom link. Free 1 hour CFP CE credit approved.
The Allocation No One Talks About, and Why Today's WASDE Just Made It Impossible to Ignore
Agriculture ETFs are 0.01 percent of all ETF AUM. Yesterday's WASDE cut US wheat stocks 22 percent YoY. Live today at 2 PM ET with Jake Hanley of Teucrium. CFP CE credit included.
The Simplest 6% In The Income Market Is A Pure Bet On Rates
Invesco Preferred ETF (PGX) pays 6.31% from 265 mostly investment-grade preferred securities with no leverage and no derivatives. The price has fallen from $15.60 to $10.67 since 2020, and whether that reverses depends entirely on the Fed.
What Consumer Credit Says About Corporate Defaults
Credit card balances 90+ days delinquent hit 13.12 percent in Q1 2026, closing in on the 13.74 percent 2010 record. Auto loans are already at a series-record 5.60 percent. High yield spreads are at 287 basis points. The household ledger has already turned. Corporate credit is still pricing the calm.
The Dollar Round-Tripped. Gold Kept Climbing.
The dollar erased its post-jobs dovish repricing. Gold and crude did not. That gap refutes last week's convergence thesis.
Sponsored: Hedgia
Today's Lead-Lag Report post is sponsored by Hedgia Launching a hedge fund used to cost $50,000. Now it is $89 a month. The $50,000 setup and the $1,000 a month in admin fees kept good managers from launching their own funds. Hedgia deleted both.
Rally Broadens Slightly: XLE Confirms Week 4 Leadership, GLD Flips Back to Leader, XLU Framework Check Deeply Broken
SPY +2.0% to $773. XLU 4W ROC -8.58% (Framework Check broken week 3). XLE Notable +1.02σ week 4 confirmed. GLD flips back to Leader. Rotation broadens but stays narrow. Run #26: 5 of 6 forward calls correct.
The Full Risk-On Stack
Every intermarket signal stays on offense. Trend, rotation, commodities, and Treasury behavior remain unanimously aligned with risk.
A 20% Yield From BlackRock With A Built-In Expiration Date
BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust (BCAT) pays nearly 20% on a 55/44 balanced portfolio, and because it is a term trust the discount has a floor. The catch is a distribution that has been shrinking for three straight years.
The Jobs Report Nobody Is Reading Right
The BLS diffusion index printed 54.4 in June 2026, identical to the full-year 2007 average. Payroll breadth spent nine of twelve months of 2025 below 50. One industry, health care, is generating 86 percent of net US job growth. Every one of those facts is public. Almost nobody is quoting them.
The Gold Signal Equity Markets Refuse to Hear
Central banks bought 243.7 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, only about 16 tonnes were officially reported. Real yields at 2.44 percent sit at 2008 highs while gold prints records. The old model of gold as anti-real-yield has stopped working. The buyers are not who the equity crowd thinks.
Starting in 30 Minutes: Anti-AI with Seth Cogswell
Anti-AI with Seth Cogswell. Live 2 PM ET. 1 CFP CE Credit.