This 6.8% Loan Fund's Check Is Up 15% Since June. Its Share Price Is Down 18% Since 2011
BKLN's monthly payout rose from $0.101 to $0.116 in four months as short rates climbed. The price is down 18% since 2011. Both facts come from the same loans.
The Dollar Is at a 19-Month High. Japan Intervened Twice This Year and the Yen Is Back at 160.
The dollar index closed at 103.17, its highest since April 2025. The yen is back at 160 after two interventions. A region-by-region look at a rate-driven dollar.
Business Applications Hit a Record in July. Fewer Than 3 in 10 Look Like Future Employers.
Americans filed 575,501 business applications in July, a record. The share Census flags as likely employers has fallen to 28.8%, from about 59% in 2006.
The Repricing Arrived. What The JOJO Signal Is Showing Now
In July, the setup looked like the calm before a repricing. In October, the repricing arrived. Credit spreads widened by roughly 28 percent in a month, volatility spiked and bonds sold off across the curve. This piece looks at what moved, what the JOJO framework is designed to do in...
Inflation's Second Wave Is Here, And The Curve Is Still Flat
The question I kept returning to this year was what credit investors should do if a second wave of inflation arrived alongside a flat curve. It arrived. Headline inflation is back at 3.7%, the Federal Reserve has raised its policy rate, and credit spreads have started to widen. The...
The Treasury's Average Borrowing Rate Hit 3.57%. The 10-Year Is Still 1.3 Points Higher.
The average rate on marketable Treasury debt is the highest since 2008, interest now outspends defense and the gap to market yields says the bill keeps rising.
The Credit Signal: High Yield Spreads Hit a 12-Month High in Week Three of Credit-Off
Weekly read on the JOJO.Index credit signal: credit-off for a third week, utilities up 10.28% vs. the S&P 500 in four weeks, and high yield spreads at a 12-month high of 348 bps.
Jobless Claims Match the Lowest Since 1969. Sentiment Is Below 2008.
Initial claims fell to 189,000 while Michigan sentiment sits below its 2008 low. Pay is trailing prices by almost a point, and that explains the gap.
Business Loan Demand Fell 28 Points. Banks Barely Changed Their Terms.
The Fed's loan officer survey shows the first drop in business loan demand in over a year, while standards for larger firms stayed basically unchanged.
Households Saved 3.8% of Their Income in September. Card Balances Did the Rest.
The saving rate fell to its lowest since October 2022 as real income dropped, and revolving credit jumped $16.3 billion in one month.
Copper Says the 10-Year Is Headed Higher. Bonds Disagree.
The copper to gold ratio is up 48% since its February low, and the 10-year yield rose 95 basis points with it. In October the ratio rose 7% while the 10-year fell 31 basis points.
The Best Six Months Start in a Midterm Year. The Fed Is the Catch.
November to April after a midterm election has been positive 19 of 19 times since 1950. When the Fed was hiking going in, gains were smaller and the dips along the way were deeper.