Copper Went Quiet, and the Fed Is About to Hike Into a Supply Shock
Oil's +76% run is a supply shock — the U.S. struck Iranian tankers, the SPR is at 1982 lows — and central banks are hiking into it, while copper stays flat a third straight week.
The Robots Are Coming Home — And So Is American Manufacturing
Live tomorrow at noon ET: Michael Gayed sits down with Chang Robotics founder Matthew Chang on reshoring, robotics, and where the market still hasn't figured out which companies actually benefit. 1 CFP CE credit approved.
AI Stopped Being an Equity Trade
The buildout is being financed with debt rather than cash flow, which converts index concentration into a shared credit exposure.
Payrolls, Prices, and the Story the Bond Market Refused
An equity rally can stay resilient while rates, energy, and credit proxies quietly raise the burden of proof.
Volatility Cannot Price This Risk
Every gauge a portfolio owns reads calm. The exposure that already did the damage is not one of the things they measure.
The Long End Is Setting Policy
A 162 basis point gap between the 30-year and the funds rate is not a forecast. It is an instruction.
Moved to Today, 12:00 PM ET: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, 1 CFP CE Credit
Rescheduled from yesterday to today at 12:00 PM ET. Washington has taken majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, and this session was built on that thesis before the news broke.
Lumber Is Dissenting From The Index
The most rate-sensitive corner of the real economy is in a relative bear market while the S&P prints records.
Today at 12:00 PM ET: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, 1 CFP CE credit
Hervé Van Caloen of Mercator Investment Management on the post-Maduro window, the Chevron licensing precedent, and the Argentina comparison. Live at noon, CE credit approved.
The Divergence Broke: Gold Gave It All Back and Copper Held
Two of the Aug 26 thesis's three legs broke and one held. Gold gave it all back, WTI ripped, and copper stayed flat — the arbiter I flagged last week is the one that mattered.
Today at 3:00 PM ET: Asset Allocation for the Next Decade, rescheduled
The Evoke Advisors risk parity primer moved to today at 3:00 PM ET. Registration is open and existing links still work.
The Passive Trap: Why Index Concentration Is a Liquidity Time Bomb
Mechanical inflows made the largest weights the market. The same mechanics run in reverse, and no one is standing on the other side.