Macro Observations
The VIX sleeps at 15.31 while the 10-year climbed 104 basis points this year and TLT fell 11.1 percent. Volatility is not a number, it is a location, and in 2026 the location is duration.
Macro Observations
September payrolls missed by two thirds, July revised to negative 10,000, and stocks rallied while the 10-year still closed higher at 5.28 percent. Stocks and bonds disagreed about the same number.
Macro Observations
Core CPI sits at 2.4 percent, essentially at target. The headline gap is gasoline, up 27.4 percent on the year and over a third of August's entire monthly increase. The Fed hiked into it anyway.
Macro Observations
The 10-year climbed from 4.24 to 5.25 percent this year. Small caps already did the math: a -0.54 monthly correlation between rates and the Russell 2000, and an 11-point gap to the Nasdaq 100 since July.
Macro Observations
The mortgage-to-Treasury spread compressed from 320 basis points to about 185, in line with its 20-year average, just as the 10-year broke to 5.18%, its highest since 2007. Every basis point now lands on the buyer.
Macro Observations
Bank card delinquencies peaked at 3.22% in mid-2024 and have fallen five straight quarters to 2.85%. The consumer crack everyone braced for happened, quietly, and ended while nobody repriced it.
Macro Observations
Money market funds hold a record $8.44 trillion and the reverse repo facility has drained to zero. The cash is not dry powder waiting to buy stocks. It is the plumbing of the bill market.
Macro Observations
The one-year Treasury yields 62 basis points above the fed funds midpoint, and everything from two to ten years sits near five percent. The market is pricing a return to where the cycle began.
Macro Observations
Unemployment fell to 4.1 percent while participation fell beside it. A rate that improves as workers exit is not the health it looks like.
Macro Observations
High yield OAS at 2.70 is historically tight. Tight spreads have led equity trouble more often than they have guaranteed safety.
Macro Observations
The Russell 2000 sits more than 25 percent above its 52-week low with the rate outlook unsettled. That is a position, not a forecast.
Macro Observations
Headline CPI at 3.4 percent is being dragged by an energy index up 16.3 percent. The Fed cuts into that anyway.