Global View
The Divergence Broke: Gold Gave It All Back and Copper Held
Two of the Aug 26 thesis's three legs broke and one held. Gold gave it all back, WTI ripped, and copper stayed flat — the arbiter I flagged last week is the one that mattered.
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Gold Recovered Seven Percent. Brent Collapsed. Only One Of Those Is Macro.
Gold's strongest close since January and Brent's supply-driven unwind are not the same trade — and copper says the growth scare is fake.
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The Dollar Round-Tripped. Gold Kept Climbing.
The dollar erased its post-jobs dovish repricing. Gold and crude did not. That gap refutes last week's convergence thesis.
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A Record Quarter, a 40-Year Yen Low, and a Refuted Peace Trade: Q3 Has Begun
The dot plot beat the peace trade at T+7, exactly as titled. A record quarter and a 40-year yen low now set Q3 terms.
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When Oil Broke Gold's Hand
The Hormuz peace trade unwound crude and yields in lockstep, but gold refused to follow the script — and that refusal is the whole tell.
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When the Yields Won
A blowout jobs print pushed the 10-year to 4.55%, and a holding Iran ceasefire pulled the geopolitical bid out from under everything.
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Three Round Numbers and a Memorial Day Airstrike
Dow 50,000. Nikkei 65,000. KOSPI 8,000. NVDA prints the best quarter in semiconductor history — and U.S. jets struck Iran, Bitcoin ETF flows went sharply negative, and gold confirmed a 15% correction.
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The Bond Market Voted Friday
Warsh confirmed, Powell walked out, CPI printed 3.8%, stocks hit all-time highs on Thursday — and then the 10-year yield had the final word.
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The 8-4 Vote and the ¥5.4 Trillion Lie.
A Fed Divided Like It’s 1992, A Yen Defense That Cost 7% of FX Reserves, and Records Built on Borrowed Time
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The Strait Is Open. The Crisis Isn’t.
Record Highs, an Oil Collapse, and a Ceasefire That Expires Tuesday
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The Ceasefire That Resolved Nothing.
A Two-Week Pause, a $19 Oil Crash, and Islamabad’s Historic Failure
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The Bounce Before the Binary.
A Relief Rally, a Jobs Surprise, and the Entire World Holding Its Breath for Sunday