Global View
The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ all hiked in September, the BoE held, and China eased. The 10-year ends of the US, Germany and Japan all climbed anyway. The risk being priced is fiscal, not monetary.
Global View
The Fed delivered its first hike in three years and the 10-year brushed 5%, the BoJ went to its highest rate since 1995 and the yen kept sliding, and copper ignored all of it, climbing back within 1.1% of its record while gold snapped its losing streak.
Global View
Oil's +76% run is a supply shock — the U.S. struck Iranian tankers, the SPR is at 1982 lows — and central banks are hiking into it, while copper stays flat a third straight week.
Global View
Two of the Aug 26 thesis's three legs broke and one held. Gold gave it all back, WTI ripped, and copper stayed flat — the arbiter I flagged last week is the one that mattered.
Global View
Gold's strongest close since January and Brent's supply-driven unwind are not the same trade — and copper says the growth scare is fake.
Global View
The dollar erased its post-jobs dovish repricing. Gold and crude did not. That gap refutes last week's convergence thesis.
Global View
The dot plot beat the peace trade at T+7, exactly as titled. A record quarter and a 40-year yen low now set Q3 terms.
Global View
The Hormuz peace trade unwound crude and yields in lockstep, but gold refused to follow the script — and that refusal is the whole tell.
Global View
A blowout jobs print pushed the 10-year to 4.55%, and a holding Iran ceasefire pulled the geopolitical bid out from under everything.
Global View
Dow 50,000. Nikkei 65,000. KOSPI 8,000. NVDA prints the best quarter in semiconductor history — and U.S. jets struck Iran, Bitcoin ETF flows went sharply negative, and gold confirmed a 15% correction.
Global View
Warsh confirmed, Powell walked out, CPI printed 3.8%, stocks hit all-time highs on Thursday — and then the 10-year yield had the final word.
Global View
A Fed Divided Like It’s 1992, A Yen Defense That Cost 7% of FX Reserves, and Records Built on Borrowed Time