What Paid Subscribers Get (And Why It Matters)
For the next 3 days: 50% off your first year, plus everything paid subscribers get that free readers don't.
Latest
The Duration Ambush
Why long rates may not follow the Fed lower this time. Term-premium repricing, bill-heavy issuance, and volatile foreign demand — the exposures the consensus is quietly mispricing.
Today at 1 PM ET: Autocallable Income Strategies — Live with GraniteShares
Free 60-minute live webinar today at 1 PM ET with Matt Lamb, CAIA of GraniteShares — autocallable income strategies, YieldBOOST lineup, live Q&A. Register free.
The Short-Vol Edge: How Simplify's SVOL Harvests the Market's Most Persistent Premium
Today’s Lead-Lag Report post is sponsored by TappAlpha Income while staying fully invested in equities. TappAlpha S&P 500 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TSPY). TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TDAQ). Investors have always had to choose: generate income or stay fully invested. TSPY
The 6.4% Question: What You Give Up for a Preferred Yield
Today’s Lead-Lag Report post is sponsored by TappAlpha Income while staying fully invested in equities. TappAlpha S&P 500 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TSPY). TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TDAQ). Investors have always had to choose: generate income or stay fully invested. TSPY
The Top of the Waterfall
Today’s Lead-Lag Report post is sponsored by TappAlpha Income while staying fully invested in equities. TappAlpha S&P 500 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TSPY). TappAlpha Innovation 100 Growth & Daily Income ETF (TDAQ). Investors have always had to choose: generate income or stay fully invested. TSPY
A Market Divided Against Itself
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Semis Sank. Banks Blew Out. Iran Got Loud.
When credit refuses to confirm a sell-off and geopolitics refuses to stay in the background, which signal is the market actually telling you to trust?
The Fed Isn't Data-Dependent. The Fed Is Treasury-Dependent.
Powell isn't waiting on inflation. He's waiting on an issuance machine that cannot survive a front-end cut. The Fed's reaction function has been captured by Treasury issuance mechanics — and the falsification condition is watchable.
The Reverse Carry Trade That Broke 2008
How the Unwinding of a Trillion-Dollar Yen Position Turned a Subprime Loss Into a Global Crash
TODAY - The Factor Investing Lie: Why Most Smart Beta Strategies Leak Risk
CE Credit Webinar Tomorrow
The Pipes That Power AI, Repriced: A Renamed, Restructured Bet on Energy Infrastructure
Kayne Anderson's flagship midstream fund has been rebranded, switched to a monthly and 20% higher distribution, and rallied 39% this year, yet the discount to NAV has widened rather than closed.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Factor Investing Lie: Why Most Smart Beta Strategies Leak Risk — Live With Jason Hsu, July 16
CE Credit Webinar Tomorrow
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Contradiction: Cool CPI, Hot Oil, Korean Bear
A cool June CPI told the Fed to stand down the same week an Iran blockade, a Korean bear, and IBM's worst day ever said otherwise.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Rotation Confirmed: Defensive Names Reclaim Leadership, EEM/XLK/Gold Unwind, Risk-Off Signal Accelerates
XLU +2.60% 4W ROC (Risk-Off Week 3); XLF +1.0σ Notable; EEM/XLK Flip to Laggard; JNK/GOVT +0.69% Confirms Credit Stable
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Inflection Point Nobody Wants to Call
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Memory Behind the AI Trade: SK Hynix Comes to Nasdaq
What the dominant HBM supplier's Nasdaq debut means — and the new 2x daily long/short ETFs (SKUU, SKDD) that trade around it starting today.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
Iran Struck. Oil Spiked. Vol Refused to Panic.
Is the vol-selling machine still bigger than the geopolitical shock function?
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Fear Gauge Reset — But the Composition Did Not (ATACX)
The headline says calm. The composition says otherwise.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Yen at a 52-Week Low and the Setup for a Carry Recompression (JOJO)
FXY closed at 56.95 on July 2 — just 55 cents above its 52-week low of 56.40. The VIX has collapsed. Credit is complacent. The three ingredients of a reverse-carry episode are on the table.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Fed Just Told You There Are No Rate Cuts Coming. Here’s How To Build Your Own.
How a Daily 0DTE Covered Call Strategy on the Nasdaq-100 Can Turn a Hawkish Fed and a Tech-Vol Spread Into a Daily Paycheck
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Dollar's Structural Bid Is Fading
The Index Has Recovered. The Buyers Underneath It Have Not.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Warsh Regime Meets Day 130
A Fed that refuses to guide runs headlong into a Hormuz supply shock, and the market must price both at once.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Emerging Market Rally Has a Selection Problem
Korea Is Doing the Work. China, India, and Indonesia Are Not Along for the Ride