Mortgage Rates Hit 7.4%. The 10-Year Did Most of It.
The mortgage rate rose 113 basis points in a year and the 10-year yield rose 115, so the gap barely changed. Over the last five weeks, half the jump was spread.
Latest
Tech Falls From Three Sigma. Credit Is the Vote That Counts.
XLK/SPY drops to +1.92 sigma in eleven sessions while JNK/GOVT holds above +1.0 sigma. Eleven comparable credit slips say the level, not the month, is the signal.
The Fed Finally Hiked. The Bond Market Is Doing the Tightening For It. TSPY Was Designed For Both.
How a daily 0DTE covered call strategy on the S&P 500 seeks to generate monthly distributions in a market shaped by the first rate hike since 2023, a 5.28% 10-year yield, and a still-compressed VIX.
The 10-Year Hit 5.31%. The Bond Market Says It Is Not Inflation.
The 10-year yield rose 97 basis points this year, and 87 of them were real yield. Oil is up 78%, yet 10-year inflation expectations moved 10 basis points.
Volatility Jumped 21% On Friday. High Yield Credit Moved Three Weeks Earlier.
The VIX rose 21.4% on a 1.1% stock decline, a combination seen on only four days in three years. High yield credit spreads have been saying the same thing since September 22.
Small Caps Are Paying The 10-Year's Bill
The Nasdaq set a record on October 5 while the Russell 2000 sat 8.6% below its August peak. The index is not diverging from the economy. It is diverging from the price of money.
The yen is near 158. Who is borrowing it?
The yen is weak, Japanese yields are near 3 percent, and the carry trade question that matters is who has to sell.
Tech Slips From Three Sigma as Credit Turns and the Utilities Streak Ends
XLK/SPY eases to +2.09 sigma, JNK/GOVT logs its first negative month, and utilities end a ten-week losing streak in a hot-CPI week.
The Labor Market Stopped Hiring And Has Not Started Firing
Payrolls rose 29,000 in September, claims sit near 197,000 and wage growth hit its lowest since 2021. The recession signals are missing and the expansion signals are fading.
The Yen Is The Other Side Of The 10-Year
The Bank of Japan has raised rates twice this year and the yen still trades near 158 per dollar. With the 10-year Treasury above 5%, the funding currency has nowhere to go.
The Fed Is Hiking Into A Supply Shock
Gasoline is up 39% in a year and crude has round-tripped from $56 to $115 to $96, yet the Fed is raising rates against it. A central bank can tighten demand. It cannot produce a barrel.
BlackRock's Troubled BDC Pays 17%. The Loan Sale Is The Tell
A valuation probe, three dividend cuts, and now a $523 million portfolio sale at 95% of marks. The stress test is live.
High Yield Spotlight
PSEC Pays 21% At A 65% Discount. The Market Thinks The NAV Is Fiction
A covered payout, a freshly cut distribution, and the widest discount in the BDC space. Which side is mispriced?
High Yield Spotlight
An 18.6 Year Duration Book Yielding 10.8%: The Purest Rates Trade In The Drawer
36% leverage on long duration credit. The distribution is 31% return of capital. Know what you are underwriting.
High Yield Spotlight
A 17.6% NAV Return, A 13.7% Distribution Raise, A 10% Discount: The EM Fund Nobody Watched
Frontier sovereigns quietly posted one of the best income years anywhere while the share price went nowhere.
The quiet currency that decides global markets
Japan's history, the yen carry trade, and the difference between an attractive asset and a resilient investment position.
Leaders-Laggards
Tech Crosses Three Sigma While Gold Breaks: The Streak Turns Ten
Tech crosses +3 sigma, gold breaks to a two-month low, credit confirms at +1.64 sigma, and utilities log a tenth straight negative week.
High Yield Spotlight
The Preferred Stock Fund That Raised Its Payout Three Times In 2026
Three raises, a special, a 9.8% discount, and a bank preferred book yielding 8.4%. The quiet quality play.
High Yield Spotlight
The AI Trade Nobody Files Under Income: 23 Midstream Names, 9.8%, Two Raises
The data center buildout runs on natural gas. These are the toll roads, in a concentrated CEF at a 10% discount.
FMKT
The Permitting Story Nobody Is Pricing In (FMKT)
Permitting reform is the deregulation story that moves on 24-month timelines and gets priced in on 24-hour cycles.
A Sample of What Your AI Agent Sends You
A real example of the weekly practice brief our AI agents email advisors in the network - market context, client conversation starters, and positioning help, personalized to your practice.
High Yield Spotlight
DoubleLine's 13% Yielder: A Third Emerging Markets, 10% Below NAV
DSL's 34% emerging-market sleeve, 5.18-year duration and doubled discount into a hiking Fed.
High Yield Spotlight
A 15% Mortgage Yield With A 7.87% Expense Ratio. Do The Math
DMO's 15% yield and tripled discount sit on top of 46% leverage and the highest expense load I have profiled.
What We Do for Advisors (and Why It Costs You Nothing)
The Lead-Lag Report is half of what I do. The other half is an advisor network with an AI agent that works for your practice, free. If we have never spoken, this one is for you.