About Michael A. Gayed, CFA

Michael A. Gayed, CFA is the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report and the founder of Lead-Lag Media. He has spent over two decades studying intermarket relationships — how signals in commodities, credit, and volatility can indicate turning points in equity markets before they show up in price. His research on the subject has been recognized five times by two of the industry’s most selective research competitions: the Charles H. Dow Award (2014, 2016) from the CMT Association, and the NAAIM Founders Award (2014, 2015, 2020) from the National Association of Active Investment Managers.

The Research Behind the Signals

The four intermarket signals published every week in The Lead-Lag Report — Lumber/Gold, High-Yield/Treasury, Utilities/S&P 500, and Copper/Gold — are not backtested marketing claims. They are the direct output of peer-reviewed, award-winning research:

• “Lumber: Worth Its Weight in Gold” (2015 NAAIM Founders Award) established lumber and gold as signals for offense and defense in active portfolio management.
• “An Intermarket Approach to Beta Rotation: The Strategy, Signal, and Power of Utilities” (2014 Dow Award, with Charles V. Bilello, CMT) formalized the utilities-based signal used to time risk rotations.
• “An Intermarket Approach to Tactical Risk Rotation” (2014 NAAIM Founders Award) and “Leverage for the Long Run” (2016 Dow Award) extended the framework to Treasuries and volatility.
• “Actively Using Passive Sectors to Generate Alpha Using the VIX” (2020 NAAIM Founders Award, with David S. Dierking, CFA and Matthew Bowler) is the most recent addition to the body of work.

Every signal published in this newsletter traces back to research that has already been vetted by the professional investment management community — not just published on a blog.

Credentials

• CFA Charterholder, CFA Institute (2008)
• B.S., Finance & Management (double major), NYU Stern School of Business
• Portfolio Manager, Free Markets ETF (FMKT), Junk-On/Off ETF (JOJO), and the ATAC Rotation Fund (ATACX)
• Founder, Tactical Rotation Management, LLC
• Formerly Portfolio Manager at Tidal Investments (previously Toroso Investments), and Co-Portfolio Manager & Chief Investment Strategist at Pension Partners, LLC

In the Media

Michael’s research and market commentary have been featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and Wall Street Journal Live, and he was a regular contributor to MarketWatch for a number of years. His work has also been cited by Marc Faber’s Gloom, Boom & Doom Report. He hosts the Lead-Lag Live podcast, where he interviews leading voices in investing and economics.

The Track Record

Since launching The Lead-Lag Report, Michael has published more than 1,800 time-stamped reports — every macro call, sector rotation signal, and allocation shift a matter of public record, not a backtest built after the fact.

Get the Research

The free edition of The Lead-Lag Report delivers the weekly macro narrative. A paid subscription unlocks the four intermarket signals themselves, specific sector and allocation guidance, the High Yield Spotlight, and the full archive.

The Lead-Lag Report provides independent market research and commentary. It is not personalized investment advice, and nothing on this site should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Michael A. Gayed serves as portfolio manager to the funds named above; see our Terms of Service for full conflict-of-interest disclosures.