Pulling this from the paywalled archive for free readers today.
The Beta Rotation signal (XLU/SPY 4-week RoC of +1.65%) remains Risk-Off for the sixth consecutive week. Despite the S&P 500's 3.4% weekly rally, utilities maintained their relative edge. XLU at $46.34 continues to attract defensive flows, reflecting persistent uncertainty even as equity markets bounced from oversold conditions.
Signal 2 has flipped to Risk-On for the first time since February. With March monthly data now in, TLT returned -4.55% versus IEF at -2.60%. The 30-year bond's underperformance versus the 10-year signals improving risk appetite on the long end of the curve -- the exact flip we flagged in last week's report. This rotation back to equities from long-duration Treasuries marks a meaningful shift.
The full piece (paywall) covers:
The 4-signal intermarket framework reading 2 Risk-Off / 2 Risk-On for the first time since February -- and what the split means for the week ahead with the S&P 500 testing its 200-day SMA from -0.8% below.
The Lumber/Gold signal holding Risk-On (lumber +11.82% vs gold +5.24% over 13 weeks) as a genuine economic read on housing resilience -- not forced liquidation -- and how to use this divergence as a positioning framework.
The Treasury Rotation flip: TLT -4.55% vs IEF -2.60% in March signals the long end of the curve is being sold more aggressively than intermediate -- a yield curve call with direct sector implications for rate-sensitive positions.
Read the full piece here: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/a-market-divided-b18
If you have been on the free list, this is the kind of analysis that lives behind the paywall every Monday. WELCOMEBACK30 takes 30 percent off annual through the end of this week -- $224 instead of $320 -- at https://www.leadlagreport.com/WELCOMEBACK30.