Intel's Comeback, the Semis ATH, and Tech Stands Alone
Trump Cancels Pakistan Talks, Big Tech Earnings Loom, S&P Notches Ninth Record of 2026 — But Five of Eleven Sectors Are Already Lower
Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator. A falling price ratio means underperformance.
LEADERS: AI CAPEX, INTEL’S COMEBACK, AND THE TECH MONOLITH
Technology (XLK) – The Cleanest Leader in the Book
Technology has now decisively claimed the leadership crown. XLK/SPY is +5.5% one-month, +4.4% three-month, and +2.8% six-month — all three lookbacks positive for the first time since the cycle began. Intel surged 24% on Friday after CFO David Zinsner described “unprecedented demand” for AI server CPUs, dragging AMD up 14% and Arm to fresh all-time highs; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed Friday at a record. Qualcomm jumped 12% Monday on the OpenAI smartphone-processor news. XLK closed Apr 27 at $160.57, up 3.8% on the week. With Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon all reporting Wednesday and Apple Thursday, this is the binary catalyst week of Q2. The macro setup — 10-year at 4.31%, HY OAS at 2.86%, VIX at 18.02 — keeps long-duration growth in the pole position.
Energy (XLE) – Three-Month Lead Persists, but the Headlines Whipsaw
Energy’s three-month ratio vs SPY is +15.8% and the six-month is +22.8% — still the strongest durable lead in this report. But the one-month ratio is -12.7% as WTI swings between $92 and $97 on Iran ceasefire headlines. Friday’s WTI close at $94.40 (-1.51%) was followed Monday by a 2.09% jump to roughly $96.50 after Trump cancelled the Pakistan talks Saturday with a curt instruction that Iran should “call” when ready to negotiate. XLE closed Apr 27 at $56.77, essentially flat on the week. The trend structure is deteriorating but the 3M lead is durable; if Iran’s reported new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz separately from nuclear talks gains traction, this ratio rolls into laggard territory within two weeks.
Emerging Markets (EEM) – The Most Consistent Leader of 2026
EEM/SPY is +3.1% one-month, +5.1% three-month, +12.1% six-month, and +9.8% one-year — the only ratio in this report that is positive across every meaningful lookback. EEM closed Apr 27 at $61.91. Japan’s Nikkei hit a record 53,736 Monday and South Korea’s Kospi surged 2.15% to a new peak of 6,615.03 — EM Asia is now leading the global cycle, not following it. Lower oil reduces input costs disproportionately for energy-importing emerging economies; the DXY at 98.35 still preserves a currency tailwind versus 2024 highs. This is the cleanest trend-follow in the book and the single highest-conviction relative-strength trade entering May.
Industrials (XLI) – PMI Confirms the Reshoring Tailwind
Industrials are +1.7% three-month and +6.1% six-month vs SPY, with the durable signal coming from this week’s S&P Global Flash Composite PMI at 52.0 (3-month high) and Manufacturing PMI at 54.0, the strongest reading since May 2022. Manufacturing output rose to 55.7, a four-year high. XLI closed Apr 27 at $171.21, down 1.0% on the week as cyclicals digested the Iran headline noise, but the longer-horizon trend remains intact. Reshoring, defense, and AI-data-center construction are three independent narratives all rolling through industrial backlogs. The one-year relative performance of +2.4% is the newest leadership claim in the book — watch for confirmation in this week’s industrial earnings.
Materials (XLB) – Base Metals Hold the Line
Materials are +4.1% three-month and +11.0% six-month vs SPY. XLB closed Apr 27 at $52.12, up 0.7% on the week. The AI buildout demand for copper, the tariff-substitution domestic-supply story, and the silver and platinum bid through the precious-metals window all converge on this sector. Even with gold’s gravestone doji on Apr 21 (GLD -2.8% in one session), industrial metals held firm. The six-month +11.0% lead remains the most durable non-tech leadership signal in this report. Base metals do not need a ceasefire resolution to extend; they need only the AI capex cycle to keep printing, which Wednesday’s mega-cap reports will either confirm or deny.
Real Estate (XLRE) – Barely Hanging On
