Nine-Week Streak: NVDA Blowout, Iran Ceasefire Hopes Collapse Oil, Tech Roars To New Highs
S&P +1.5% On Week 9; XLK +5.9% On NVDA Beat; XLE -5.4% Flips To Laggard On Iran Ceasefire; 10Y Softens To 4.45%; EEM Leads All Major Indexes
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Nine-Week Streak: NVDA Blowout, Iran Ceasefire Hopes Collapse Oil, Tech Roars To New Highs
Below is an assessment of the performance of some of the most important sectors and asset classes relative to each other with an interpretation of what underlying market dynamics may be signaling about the future direction of risk-taking by investors. The below charts are all price ratios which show the underlying trend of the numerator relative to the denominator. A rising price ratio means the numerator is outperforming (up more/down less) the denominator. A falling price ratio means underperformance.
LEADERS: TECH, SMALL CAPS, AND EM PARTY ON THE NINTH UP-WEEK
Technology (XLK) – NVDA Earnings Detonated The Tape
Technology had its single best week of 2026. XLK/SPY is +12.9% one-month, +22.2% three-month, +19.1% six-month, and +27.9% one-year. XLK closed Fri May 29 at $191.02, up 5.89% on the week — driven almost entirely by NVDA’s Wednesday May 27 earnings blowout that exceeded every metric and reset Q2 guidance materially higher. Networking revenue at NVDA tripled year-over-year per Morningstar coverage, and the AI capex narrative re-broadened beyond just chips into infrastructure. Dell announced AI server revenue +757% YoY. With 10-year yields softening back to 4.45% and Iran ceasefire hopes calming the macro tape, the duration math that threatened tech two weeks ago has reversed entirely. Tech is the cleanest, strongest leader in this report by a wide margin.
Russell 2000 / Small Caps (IWM) – Breadth Confirms The Tech Run
IWM/SPY: +0.4% one-month, +0.5% three-month, +8.5% six-month, +9.8% one-year. IWM closed Fri May 29 at $290.43, up 1.86% on the week — the second-best major U.S. equity move. The signal: small caps are confirming the broader risk-on tape rather than diverging from it. With the 10-year softening 12bps WoW to 4.45%, floating-rate debt holders within small caps are finally getting relief. The Fed-hike trade has fully priced and rate-cut hopes are creeping back in based on the dovish read of the Iran ceasefire — lower oil means lower inflation means more Fed room. Until the macro framing changes again, small caps stay leader.
Emerging Markets (EEM) – Now A Leader Across Every Horizon
EEM/SPY: +2.9% one-month, -1.0% three-month, +11.7% six-month, +17.6% one-year. EEM closed Fri May 29 at $68.60, up 4.13% on the week — the best-performing major index in this report. The one-month flipped firmly positive as the dollar softened on softer yields, China stimulus chatter resurfaced, and oil collapse helped EM commodity importers (most of EM ex-Russia). The structural EM bid — commodity exporters benefiting from prior energy bid, US-China trade-deal flow, relative cheapness vs U.S. on every multiple — keeps the ratio in clean leader territory. If DXY breaks below 100, this ratio accelerates dramatically.
European Banks vs U.S. Banks (EUFN/XLF) – The Strongest Cross-Asset Signal Holds
EUFN/XLF: +4.8% one-month, +0.8% three-month, +15.1% six-month, +22.6% one-year. The one-year reading remains the strongest durable cross-asset signal in this report for the seventh consecutive week. EUFN closed Fri May 29 at $38.51, up 0.92% on the week. European banks continue to outperform U.S. peers because the ECB is past its easing cycle while the Fed is being forced toward hikes — putting U.S. banks in the curve-flat trap. UniCredit, Deutsche Bank, ING, and BNP all reported strong margin expansion this earnings cycle. As long as the 10-year stays bid and the ECB stays neutral, this ratio holds. The one-month accelerated to +4.8% — transatlantic profit re-rating is intensifying, not fading.
High-Yield Credit vs Treasuries (JNK/GOVT) – Credit Still Beats Duration
JNK/GOVT: +0.6% one-month, +2.0% three-month, +3.4% six-month, +3.9% one-year. JNK closed Fri May 29 at $96.25; GOVT at $22.71. Even as Treasuries firmed this week (10-year softened to 4.45% on Iran de-escalation), high yield continued to outperform. Credit spreads remain in tight quartile territory — the HY OAS has not blown out despite the duration carnage of the past month. The setup remains: if economic data cracks (jobless claims Friday, ISM, payrolls), HY default risk re-prices and this ratio reverses fast. But until then, the carry continues to win against bleeding principal in duration.
Lumber / Gold – Pro-Growth Signal Accelerates
Lumber/Gold extended its leader move. The ratio is +3.0% one-month, +19.9% three-month, +7.3% six-month — a clean accelerating upside reversal. Lumber futures (LBR=F) closed Fri May 29 at $587.50; GLD closed at $417.12, up 0.8% on the week but still well off recent highs. The pro-growth, anti-defensive signal is intensifying with the broader risk-on tape. The one-year is still -26.5% — the structural gap remains massive, making this a counter-trend tactical signal. Historic message: rising lumber + falling gold has preceded growth re-acceleration phases. The catch: if NVDA earnings turn out to be the peak euphoria signal and the AI bid cracks in June, gold re-asserts immediately.
LAGGARDS: ENERGY COLLAPSES, BONDS BLEED, DEFENSIVES STILL DEAD
Energy (XLE) – Flipped From Leader To Laggard On Iran Ceasefire Whipsaw
Energy got destroyed this week. XLE/SPY is now -10.3% one-month, -5.6% three-month, +8.9% six-month, +8.9% one-year — the one-month flip from +5.9% last week to -10.3% this week is the cleanest regime change in the report. XLE closed Fri May 29 at $56.29, down 5.38% on the week. Brent collapsed from the $104 area to under $90 on US-Iran ceasefire hope acceleration. WTI ended the week around $89. President Trump’s decision-pending on a 60-day extended ceasefire pact removed the geopolitical premium that had buoyed energy since April. The six-month and one-year leads are still positive (+8.9% each), which is why this is technically a flip-on-trend laggard rather than a structural laggard. But the conviction is gone: until Hormuz risk re-prices or US shale supply cracks, energy stays here. This was the most violent intra-week sector move of 2026 so far.
Gold (GLD) – Standalone Still Capped
