One Year of Signals: The Track Record
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I started publishing The Lead-Lag Report because I believed intermarket analysis was the most underused edge in investing. Most people watch the S&P 500 and react. The signal framework watches everything else—and positions ahead of time.
One year in, here's the data.
THE SIGNAL FRAMEWORK
The Lead-Lag Report tracks a composite of intermarket ratios that historically lead major market moves. These include:
Lumber/Gold — a leading indicator of economic growth expectations
Copper/Gold — a proxy for global risk appetite
High Yield/Treasury spreads — the credit market's view on risk
Small Cap/Large Cap relative strength — a gauge of risk-on breadth
Emerging Market/Developed Market flows — global liquidity signals
Each ratio is scored and combined into a composite signal. When the composite shifts, it has historically preceded equity market moves by 2-6 weeks.
12 MONTHS OF SIGNALS
Over the past year, the composite signal flagged the following major moves:
September 2025: Defensive Rotation — The Lumber/Gold ratio broke down three weeks before equities rolled over. The signal dashboard shifted to risk-off positioning. Paid subscribers adjusted exposure before the drawdown became headline news.
November 2025: Re-Risk — High Yield spreads compressed while Copper/Gold stabilized. The composite flipped back to risk-on. The subsequent rally lasted through year-end—and subscribers were positioned for it from the start.
January 2026: Sector Rotation Signal — Small Cap/Large Cap relative strength surged while credit spreads held tight. The framework flagged a broadening rally. Value and cyclicals outperformed for the next six weeks.
March 2026: Current Positioning — The signal dashboard is currently showing mixed readings with selective opportunities. The full breakdown—including specific sector positioning and risk levels—is available to paid subscribers in this week's report.
WHY THIS MATTERS
The financial media reacts to moves after they happen. The Lead-Lag signal framework is designed to identify them before they're obvious. That's the difference between reading about a rotation and being positioned for one.
No framework is perfect. But over 52 weeks of published signals, the composite has provided actionable context ahead of every major inflection point. That's the track record.
WHAT YOU GET AS A PAID SUBSCRIBER
Weekly signal dashboard with composite score
Allocation guidance based on current readings
Deep-dive analysis on each ratio and what it's signaling
Historical context for current setups
Access to the full archive of past signals and their outcomes
Start a free 7-day trial and see two full reports. If the signals don't change how you think about markets, cancel and pay nothing.
The framework doesn't wait for headlines. Neither should you.