Party Like It’s 1999? Not So Fast.
Running Oak Capital on Bubble Risk, AI Overcapacity, and Why Efficient Growth Matters Now
Friday, March 13, 2026 | 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT
Host: Michael A. Gayed, CFA | Speaker: Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital
CFP Board CE Credit Approved
Prince told us to party like it’s 1999. The problem? 1999 was the peak of the biggest equity bubble in modern history. And the parallels to today are uncomfortable.
I’m hosting a webinar with Running Oak Capital that I think every advisor and allocator needs to see. Seth Cogswell and his team have put together one of the most compelling market presentations I’ve come across — a Prince-lyric-themed walkthrough of where markets are, what’s breaking beneath the surface, and why their Efficient Growth strategy (RUNN) is built for exactly this moment.
👉 Register for the Webinar Here
What We’ll Cover
The presentation digs into five key themes:
A Love That’s Gonna Last. Running Oak’s Efficient Growth strategy has outperformed the S&P 500 on a cumulative basis since 1989, net of fees — with a smoother ride. During the dot-com bust (Q1 2000 to Q1 2003), the strategy held steady while the S&P 500 cratered. That kind of durability is what portfolios need right now.
Historic Risk. The forward P/E of the 10 largest holdings in the S&P 500 is now nearly 40 — higher than the peak of the Tech Bubble. Margin debt is at record highs. Retail equity flows are the strongest on record. Factor analysis shows high-volatility and meme stocks leading, while high-quality and low-volatility names lag. These are late-cycle signals that should not be ignored.
Uncertainty and the AI Razor’s Edge. CIOs are now telling CEOs to slow down on capex — a historic reversal. Nvidia’s Vera Rubin architecture promises 10x more efficiency than Blackwell, raising the question: why buy current-gen chips when the next generation does far more for less? Per some sources, $100B of Blackwell chips sold last year aren’t even being used. Circular deals are inflating artificial demand. This is the deflationary pressure nobody is talking about.
Is This a Bubble? The data says: look at what happened the last time high-investment companies were this popular relative to low-investment companies. The Nifty Fifty era and the Dotcom peak both ended the same way. Mean reversion to just the Tech Bubble peak implies a 32% decline. Reversion to the average? Down 57%.
Why Efficient Growth NOW. Upper-mid and lower-large cap stocks are woefully underinvested in today’s portfolios. This is precisely where the most attractive risk/reward asymmetry lives. Efficient Growth fills that gap — with a forward P/E lower than the S&P 500, an implied growth rate over 50% higher, and a beta of 0.84. It’s the best of both worlds.
The Numbers Speak
As of February 25, 2026:
Efficient Growth: Forward P/E of 19.6, expected growth of 36%, beta of 0.84
S&P 500: Forward P/E of 22.9, expected growth of 21%, beta of 1.0
S&P 500 Equal Weight: Forward P/E of 18.5, expected growth of 14%, beta of 0.97
Lower valuation. Higher growth. Less risk. That’s not a pitch — that’s math.
Why This Matters
Most portfolios today are concentrated in the same mega-cap names, riding the same momentum, exposed to the same valuation risk. The S&P 500 Equal Weight — often marketed as diversification — has a beta of 0.97. That’s not diversification. It’s just more of the same.
Running Oak’s approach is different. Rules-based, time-tested over four decades, focused on quality companies with real earnings growth and attractive valuations. It’s a strategy built to outperform across full economic cycles — not just when everything is going up.
This is a webinar worth your time. Register below.