The Fed Just Spoke. Now Hear What They Won't Tell You.
Jay Hatfield on why real inflation is already at 1.9%, the oil shock timeline, and where the S&P 500 is headed — TODAY at 1 PM ET
WEBINAR TODAY — 1:00 PM ET
The Fed just made its latest decision. The market is digesting it. And most of what you’re hearing right now is noise.
Here’s what’s not noise:
The Fed’s 2% inflation target is based on a deeply flawed PCE index. The shelter component is delayed by two years relative to market rents. Imputed financial services prices are completely disconnected from reality — when stocks go up, the BEA says you’re paying higher management fees even though management fees haven’t changed. That single distortion raised year-over-year core PCE by 0.5%.
The real number? Core PCE adjusted for market prices is 1.9%. Not 3.1%.
That’s not a rounding error. That’s the difference between “rates need to stay high” and “the Fed should be cutting to neutral right now.”
Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, built a measure called Realflation that strips out the noise. And his read is clear: the Fed should be moving to 2.75% as soon as oil prices give them cover.
Today at 1 PM ET, Jay and I are going live to break all of this down.
This isn’t a generic post-Fed recap. We’re going deep on:
Why PCE is broken — the specific imputed prices that are inflating the number and misleading the Fed
The oil shock math — worst case $140 (Strait of Hormuz closure), base case $100, and why we expect sub-$70 within a month
Private credit panic is overdone — even the absolute worst-case loss rate of 10% means BDCs and alt managers are oversold by at least 20%
The AI short theses are inconsistent — you can’t simultaneously argue cloud companies will get bad returns on AI capex AND that AI will destroy every software business
Why mid-April is the turning point — earnings season, oil clarity, and the end of tax-season weakness set up a power rally
S&P 500 year-end target: 8,000 — with 3 rate cuts still likely once oil normalizes
We’ll also discuss specific investment strategies for this environment — income approaches, risk management, and how to position for what’s coming.
This is CFP® Board CE Credit Eligible.
If you manage money or advise clients, you need to hear this before the close today. The window between now and mid-April earnings season is where the mispricing is. After that, the market figures it out.
The webinar starts in hours. Not days. Hours.
Sponsored by Infrastructure Capital Advisors
This is not investment advice. The Lead-Lag Report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own due diligence.