This Is the Most Important Webinar I’m Hosting This Year
And It’s Happening in Less Than 2 Hours
TODAY — 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT
Host: Michael A. Gayed, CFA | Speaker: Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital
CFP Board CE Credit Approved
🚨 REGISTER NOW — THE WEBINAR IS TODAY 🚨
I don’t say this lightly.
I host a lot of webinars. I talk to a lot of portfolio managers. And most of the time, the content is fine — useful, educational, worth your time. But every once in a while, someone puts together a presentation that stops me in my tracks. That makes me think: every advisor in the country needs to see this.
This is one of those.
Today at noon ET, I’m sitting down with Seth Cogswell, Founder and Managing Partner of Running Oak Capital, for a live walkthrough of one of the most compelling — and frankly alarming — market presentations I’ve seen in years. It’s themed around Prince lyrics, and it will make you rethink everything about how your portfolio is positioned right now.
Why You Cannot Miss This
Let me give you the highlight reel of what Seth is going to walk through today:
The forward P/E of the S&P 500’s 10 largest holdings is now nearly 40. That’s higher than the peak of the Tech Bubble. Not approaching it. Past it.
Margin debt is at all-time highs. Retail equity flows are the strongest on record. Meme stocks and high-volatility names are leading the market. High-quality companies? Dead last.
$100 billion of Nvidia Blackwell chips sold last year aren’t being used. Meanwhile, the next-gen Vera Rubin architecture is 10x more efficient. CIOs are telling CEOs to slow down on capex for the first time in decades. Circular deals are inflating artificial demand. This is the AI deflationary pressure no one is talking about.
Mean reversion to just the Tech Bubble peak implies a 32% decline. Reversion to the historical average? Down 57%.
And the factor analysis Seth has put together — what he calls “The Dumbest 8 Months in History” — shows exactly how broken the market’s reward structure has become. The stocks making the most money? Getting punished. The stocks with the most speculation? Getting rewarded.
If that doesn’t make you want to tune in, I don’t know what will.
The Solution Nobody Is Talking About
This isn’t just a doom-and-gloom presentation. Seth is going to lay out exactly how Running Oak’s Efficient Growth strategy (RUNN) is built for this exact environment. The numbers are staggering:
Forward P/E of 19.6 vs. the S&P 500’s 22.9
Expected growth of 36% vs. the S&P 500’s 21%
Beta of 0.84 — meaningfully less risk
Lower valuation. Higher growth. Less risk. That’s not marketing. That’s math.
And here’s the part that should really get your attention: the upper-mid and lower-large cap space — where Efficient Growth operates — is woefully underinvested in most portfolios. Everyone is crowded into the same mega-cap names, riding the same momentum, exposed to the same valuation cliff. The S&P 500 Equal Weight has a beta of 0.97. That’s not diversification. That’s a rounding error.
Running Oak’s track record speaks for itself. Since 1989, Efficient Growth has outperformed the S&P 500 cumulatively, net of fees, with roughly half the average drawdown. During the dot-com bust, the S&P cratered. Efficient Growth held steady. That’s the kind of portfolio construction that actually protects wealth when it matters.
Last Chance to Register
The webinar is today at 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT. It’s free. It’s approved for CFP Board CE credit. And it might be the most important hour you spend this week.
I’m not in the habit of begging people to attend webinars. But I’m telling you: the data Seth is presenting should be required viewing for anyone managing money right now.
Thursday, March 13, 2026 | 12:00 PM ET / 9:00 AM PT
See you there.
The Lead-Lag Report is provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC. All opinions and views mentioned in this report constitute our judgments as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time. Information within this material is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions and should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any individual investor. Trading signals produced by the Lead-Lag Report are independent of other services provided by Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC or its affiliates, and positioning of accounts under their management may differ. Please remember that investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and past performance may not be indicative of future results. Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC, its members, officers, directors and employees expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
Special Announcement
This content is sponsored by Running Oak Capital. Running Oak Capital is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. For more information, visit runningoak.com.