While not directly a market-related event, the social media sparring match between Donald Trump and Elon Musk will likely be remembered as the highlight of the week. It obviously impacted Tesla’s stock price quite a bit and is probably making Elon wonder if his aspirations over the past 9 months that have seen him invest a couple hundred million dollars in getting Trump re-elected, Tesla sales drop considerably, his public image take a big hit and made him the primary target of a president who has a long list of targets all worth it.
From an economic view, the labor market data was mostly mixed, although Friday’s non-farm payroll report added a bit of optimism. The JOLTS and ADP data released earlier suggested that the non-farm payroll number could be ugly. While the May figure topped expectations, those from the prior two months were revised lower by a combined nearly 100K jobs. There seems to be enough here to convince a lot of market participants that the labor market is still holding up and the performance of stocks on Friday would seem to confirm that. Overall, investors seem to be in a relatively decent mood still as the primary risks remain on the geopolitical front.
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For the most part, the markets are still in a risk-on mood. Stocks were up, including tech, but small-caps were actually the ones leading the way. I said before that if the lows of this cycle are already in, small-caps genuinely have a chance to lead because the next leg of the market’s move higher would likely be led by some signal of economic expansion. A still healthy labor market would be a good start and small-caps reacted on Friday as if that were the case. This group has been unloved for so long, but I do think there’s still a lot of potential here. If the economy can navigate its way through this current tariff regime and manage to avoid a recession, the subsequent growth re-acceleration should be led by smaller companies.
On the other end, gold traded lower as the week went on and Treasury yields were clearly impacted by the NFP report. Better-than-expected job growth coupled with stronger wage growth and a tame unemployment rate means investors view the odds of a near-term rate cut as lower than before. I expect that the market will continue to struggle with a Fed that seems unwilling to loosen conditions unless obvious evidence of a slowdown emerges.
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