Macro Observations

The Bank of Japan finds itself in one hell of a mess, one in which they may not be able to control the outcome despite their best efforts. The yen carry trade is one of the most dangerous macro tail risks in the market today. It’s easy to look at the yen/dollar chart and conclude that the yen has further to fall, and it may, but there’s actually a developing case for why the yen might be getting ready to rally finally.

A lot of people are ready to pounce on those that they deem “wrong”. If I’m early & wrong, I can still make money. If I’m late, does it really matter? I’d rather be early & wrong than late & right. Everybody wants immediate gratification. They want it with their investments. They want it with their spending. They want it in their judgments of others.

If you have a copy of Benjamin Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” on your bookshelf or religiously follow Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholder meetings, you might want to sit down. That’s because all notion of fundamental investing is being thrown out the window as we speak. Gone, apparently, is the need to examine balance sheets or cash flow statements or competitive advantages or, you know, anything that has to do with the actual health of a business.