Ever wonder why markets seem to overreact to news we all saw coming? Cullen Roche challenges conventional wisdom about market efficiency with a refreshing perspective: "The price is always wrong." This fundamental insight transforms how we should approach investing during uncertain times.
When tariffs send markets plunging, investors face the classic struggle between what they intellectually know they should do versus what feels right in the moment. Roche expertly dissects why traditional risk profiling fails most investors—everyone knows the "correct" answers on questionnaires, but real-world market volatility triggers emotional responses that make seemingly irrational decisions feel completely logical. As uncertainty surges during market corrections, even legendary investors can get caught in this psychological trap.
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The conversation introduces a powerful framework called "defined duration investing," which quantifies investment time horizons to match appropriate assets with specific financial needs. The stock market, fundamentally a 17-year instrument, cannot be forced to behave like a money market fund without consequences. This misalignment explains why many investors struggle behaviorally with market volatility—they're trying to "turn water into wine" by expecting short-term stability from inherently long-term assets.
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