The Price of a Quiet Yen

A new book by Michael A. Gayed, CFA on Japan's economic history, the yen carry trade and why global reversals happen.

The Price of a Quiet Yen

The Price of a Quiet Yen: Japan's Economic History, the Carry Trade, and the Anatomy of Global Reversals, by Michael A. Gayed, CFA.

Hardcover on Amazon: $44.95  |  Kindle edition: $9.99

What the book is about

When the yen is quiet, almost nobody asks who is borrowing it. This book follows Japan's economic history from the 1970s through September 2026, then shows how the yen carry trade works, why it unwinds, and what separates an attractive asset from a resilient position.

The central argument is that the big reversals of 1998, 2008, 2011 and 2024 were financing stories more than asset stories. The asset being held was rarely the problem. The funding behind it was, and the holder who could wait out the move survived while the holder forced to sell did not.

What is inside

  • 402 pages, 32 chapters and 30 figures, with worked examples, sources, a glossary and an analytical index.
  • Japan's bubble, the lost decades, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet and the long road away from zero rates.
  • The mechanics of a cash carry trade, leverage, hedging costs and why a calm market is the wrong test of a position.
  • Four reversals worked through in detail: 1998, 2008, 2011 and 2024.

A few figures from the book

Monthly average yen per US dollar, 1973 to August 2026. Source: Federal Reserve G.5; FRED EXJPUS.
Monthly average yen per US dollar, 1973 to August 2026. Source: Federal Reserve G.5; FRED EXJPUS.
The monthly yen path through the 1998 reversal. Source: Federal Reserve G.5; FRED EXJPUS.
The monthly yen path through the 1998 reversal. Source: Federal Reserve G.5; FRED EXJPUS.
A 59.5% loss requires a 146.9% gain to restore starting equity. Mathematical identity, not an expected recovery path.
A 59.5% loss requires a 146.9% gain to restore starting equity. Mathematical identity, not an expected recovery path.

Details

Publisher: Felix Culpa Publishing, LLC. Published October 5, 2026. Hardcover ISBN 979-8-234-25623-2. Sold in the United States through Amazon. Prices shown are list prices; check the Amazon listing for current pricing and availability. Hypothetical figures are labeled as such and are illustrations, not forecasts or investment advice.

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