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The Fed Is Hiking Into a Credit Boom. Business Loans Are Up 10%.
Business loans are growing 10% a year, the fastest since March 2023, while banks have stopped tightening and the Fed raises rates. Two readings of the same number.
Mortgage Rates Hit 7.4%. The 10-Year Did Most of It.
The mortgage rate rose 113 basis points in a year and the 10-year yield rose 115, so the gap barely changed. Over the last five weeks, half the jump was spread.
Tech Falls From Three Sigma. Credit Is the Vote That Counts.
XLK/SPY drops to +1.92 sigma in eleven sessions while JNK/GOVT holds above +1.0 sigma. Eleven comparable credit slips say the level, not the month, is the signal.