Anti-AI: Why Efficient Growth Is Trading Nothing Like The S&P 500 (Tomorrow, 2 PM ET)
Live tomorrow with Seth Cogswell, Running Oak Capital. Factor dispersion is at a decade-plus wide. Twenty of the last 38 trading days saw 110bps+ differentials. High Vol is beating Low Vol 131% to 12%. This is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing.
The Anti-AI trade is not a thesis. It is what the market is already doing — quietly.
Tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET, join Seth Cogswell (Founder, Running Oak Capital) and Michael A. Gayed, CFA on why Efficient Growth has been trading like the involuntary Anti-AI portfolio, why hyperscaler earnings may be the Grand Illusion of this cycle, and why the widest factor dispersion in over a decade is opportunity, not a signal to chase.
The Market Is Speaking
- 20 of the last 38 trading days: 110bps+ differential vs. S&P 500
- Efficient Growth vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight correlation: 0.77
- 14 months: highly questionable factors (high vol, unprofitable, low quality, meme) beat common-sense factors by ~3x
- High Vol beat Low Vol 131% to 12%
- Money-losers beat money-makers 2x
The Grand Illusion
- Revenue overstated: paper profits, circular financing, tariff refunds
- Expenses understated as depreciation stretched 3 to 5 years
- Margins ~40% higher than the software-dominated decade
- Hyperscaler cash piles gone, cash flow negative, debt at records
What Advisors Take Away
- Explain factor dispersion without triggering performance-chasing
- Why 14 months of nonsense is sow time, not signal
- Efficient Growth: 88% downside capture, 92% upside capture (Sept 2013 - June 2026)
- Downside protection: audited 2018, 2022; hypothetical 2008, 2002, 2001, 2000, 1990
- Benchmark-agnostic construction in a passive-heavy book
When: Tuesday, August 4, 2:00-3:00 PM ET
CE Credit: 1 CFP CE Credit Approved | Investment Planning | Intermediate
Sponsor: Running Oak Capital
Format: Live on Zoom, replay to all registrants
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements on the AI trade and hyperscalers reflect Running Oak Capital opinion, not fact.
