Payrolls, Prices, and the Story the Bond Market Refused
An equity rally can stay resilient while rates, energy, and credit proxies quietly raise the burden of proof.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
CFA charterholder. Founder of Lead-Lag Media. Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report. 5x Dow & NAAIM Founders Award winner for research on intermarket signals.
Macro Observations
Volatility Cannot Price This Risk
Every gauge a portfolio owns reads calm. The exposure that already did the damage is not one of the things they measure.
Macro Observations
The Long End Is Setting Policy
A 162 basis point gap between the 30-year and the funds rate is not a forecast. It is an instruction.
Webinar
Moved to Today, 12:00 PM ET: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, 1 CFP CE Credit
Rescheduled from yesterday to today at 12:00 PM ET. Washington has taken majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, and this session was built on that thesis before the news broke.
Macro Observations
Lumber Is Dissenting From The Index
The most rate-sensitive corner of the real economy is in a relative bear market while the S&P prints records.
Webinar
Today at 12:00 PM ET: The Venezuela Thesis with Mercator, 1 CFP CE credit
Hervé Van Caloen of Mercator Investment Management on the post-Maduro window, the Chevron licensing precedent, and the Argentina comparison. Live at noon, CE credit approved.
Global View
The Divergence Broke: Gold Gave It All Back and Copper Held
Two of the Aug 26 thesis's three legs broke and one held. Gold gave it all back, WTI ripped, and copper stayed flat — the arbiter I flagged last week is the one that mattered.
Webinar
Today at 3:00 PM ET: Asset Allocation for the Next Decade, rescheduled
The Evoke Advisors risk parity primer moved to today at 3:00 PM ET. Registration is open and existing links still work.
Macro Observations
The Passive Trap: Why Index Concentration Is a Liquidity Time Bomb
Mechanical inflows made the largest weights the market. The same mechanics run in reverse, and no one is standing on the other side.
Macro Observations
The AI Payback Clock Is Running Backward
The infrastructure is real. The return evidence is arriving later than the spending.
Macro Observations
The AI Capex Bubble Won't Die From Demand. It'll Die From Spreads.
Capex Cycles Die From the Top of the Capital Stack. Everyone Is Watching the Wrong Number.
High-Yield-Spotlight
The 13% Yield That Trades at 72 Cents on the Dollar
PFLT yields 13% and trades at a 28% NAV discount -- the deepest of our BDC trilogy. The distribution was cut from $0.1025 to $0.08/mo, but NII now covers it at 104%. Is the bad news priced in, or is another cut coming? A full analysis of the risk/reward.