Newsletter
Two days before Thanksgiving in 2008, I lost my father suddenly. He was here one day and gone the next, right on the eve of a holiday about gratitude and family. It’s hard to describe what that kind of loss feels like, especially at a time when everyone else
Newsletter
Weekly Signals
The market has spent most of 2025 celebrating its loudest winners — Big Tech, high-beta favorites, and the speculative trades that dominated the narrative. Yet beneath that noise, a quieter story is unfolding. Low-volatility stocks, ignored for much of the year, have begun to outperform. The shift is subtle,
Lead-Lag Live
Key Takeaways * Tech isn’t in a bubble — but it is fully valued. Expect pullbacks to be more about digestion than destruction, with dip buyers still active. * Rotation is already underway. Small-caps and value-heavy equities tend to outperform coming out of Fed tightening cycles. * Income has the edge
Lead-Lag Live
Key Takeaways * AI monetization in China is shifting toward cloud computing, where Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are seeing the strongest revenue traction. * China’s “anti-involution” policy is easing excessive competition and helping stabilize profitability in areas like solar and clean tech. * Non-U.S. investors are reallocating to China
Newsletter
High Yield Spotlight
Key Takeaways * KBWY offers one of the highest yields in the ETF world (~9–10%), but that payout comes with real volatility and long-term capital erosion. * The fund is concentrated in small and micro-cap REITs — the riskiest corners of the real estate market — which fall harder in downturns
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Key Takeaways * Rate-cut bets surged after delayed labor data showed softening conditions, pushing Treasury yields and the dollar lower even as weekly equity performance remained negative. * Market leadership showed visible strain, with tech—especially Nvidia—failing to rally despite strong earnings, highlighting valuation fatigue. * Policy visibility remains limited, with
Newsletter
Global View
Key Takeaways * A 43-day U.S. government shutdown erased major economic releases, forcing markets to trade without CPI or jobs data.¹ * Fed officials are split on a possible December rate cut, keeping volatility elevated and narrowing market leadership.² * Europe shows rare stability: PMIs remain above 50 and inflation sits
Leaders-Laggards
Retail stocks have spent most of 2025 on their back foot. The equal-weighted SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is down for the year, badly trailing the S&P 500’s gain.¹ A rotation away from consumer cyclicals has hardened into a broader risk-off stance, and
Macro Observations
AI enthusiasm has pushed Nvidia to heights few would have imagined, humbling anyone who doubted its rise—including me. For nearly two years I argued the stock had outrun reality, yet Nvidia kept proving skeptics wrong. Its latest earnings only intensified the mania, raising an uncomfortable question: is this a