Leaders-Laggards
Summary * Healthcare has lagged the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points year-to-date, extending a multi-year stretch of underperformance. * Political pressure, patent expirations, and investor rotations into AI and tech have weighed heavily on the sector. * Valuations are now at multi-decade lows, with large-
Closing Thoughts for the Week
The past week was a case study in optimism prevailing over adversity. Investors cheered a dovish Federal Reserve and softer inflation readings, sending equities to fresh highs despite a historic U.S. government shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed above 47,000 for the first time¹, and the S&
Macro Observations
The U.S. stock market continues to grind higher despite a range of potential headwinds. Investors have largely shrugged off soft economic data, geopolitical tension, and policy uncertainty. While low volatility suggests stability, volatility down often means complacency up. When markets are this quiet, investors may be letting their guard
High Yield Spotlight
With the S&P 500 yielding around 1.2%, income investors are struggling to generate meaningful returns from dividends¹. Chasing higher yields often leads to riskier holdings—such as REITs or MLPs—prone to volatility or payout cuts. In this environment, investors increasingly seek quality dividend payers offering durability
Global View
Key Takeaways * Markets Rally on Fed Pivot Hopes: Softer U.S. inflation strengthened expectations of rate cuts, pushing the S&P 500 to within reach of record highs. * Global Growth Diverges: The Eurozone surprised with its strongest PMI in 17 months, while China’s economy slowed, raising pressure for
Leaders-Laggards
The Consumer Staples sector—traditionally a safe haven—has lagged sharply in 2025. Year-to-date, staples have gained barely 3 percent versus more than 15 percent for the S&P 500, making them among the weakest major sector of the stock market. Investors have chased high-growth tech
Weekly Signals
Lumber’s price swings have long served as an early read on the economy’s health. Because it’s central to homebuilding, lumber demand often rises and falls before broader economic shifts appear in GDP or employment data. As economist Edward Leamer once wrote, housing is “the most important sector
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Flight to Safety Amid Credit Jitters
High Yield Spotlight
Investors seeking income face a challenge: the S&P 500 yields below 2%, offering limited cash flow versus historical norms¹. Early optimism around a potential Federal Reserve pivot drove yields lower and lifted defensive sectors. As those expectations moderated, Treasury yields rebounded, cooling speculative excesses. Utilities—historically interest-rate
Newsletter
In credit markets these days, raising new funds feels like running a marathon, not a sprint. According to PitchBook, private credit funds now take nearly two years to close—roughly double the pace from just a few years ago¹. Major managers are feeling the strain and are turning to new
Global View
Economic data were muted by the partial government shutdown, but enough leaked to shape markets. Private payrolls (ADP) unexpectedly fell by 31,000 in September, far below forecasts, and consumer confidence slid to a five-month low¹. The labor market remains historically tight (U-3 unemployment ~4.3%) but hiring
Leaders-Laggards
The Business Development Company (BDC) sector has had a rough ride in 2025. The VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), a broad proxy for the group, is down 16.36% year-to-date as of early October, while the S&P 500 is up over 13%.¹ Even reliable names like