Read more
What Consumer Credit Says About Corporate Defaults
Credit card balances 90+ days delinquent hit 13.12 percent in Q1 2026, closing in on the 13.74 percent 2010 record. Auto loans are already at a series-record 5.60 percent. High yield spreads are at 287 basis points. The household ledger has already turned. Corporate credit is still pricing the calm.
The Dollar Round-Tripped. Gold Kept Climbing.
The dollar erased its post-jobs dovish repricing. Gold and crude did not. That gap refutes last week's convergence thesis.
Sponsored: Hedgia
Today's Lead-Lag Report post is sponsored by Hedgia Launching a hedge fund used to cost $50,000. Now it is $89 a month. The $50,000 setup and the $1,000 a month in admin fees kept good managers from launching their own funds. Hedgia deleted both.
Rally Broadens Slightly: XLE Confirms Week 4 Leadership, GLD Flips Back to Leader, XLU Framework Check Deeply Broken
SPY +2.0% to $773. XLU 4W ROC -8.58% (Framework Check broken week 3). XLE Notable +1.02σ week 4 confirmed. GLD flips back to Leader. Rotation broadens but stays narrow. Run #26: 5 of 6 forward calls correct.