Macro Observations
After nearly three years of fits and starts, it looks like China’s economic engine might finally be showing signs of reigniting. It's not a full-fledged recovery nor even an acceleration. It's still just signs that things could finally be improving. That, however, could be
Macro Observations
The United States and Japan struck perhaps the most meaningful trade deal since Liberation Day. The agreement comes across more as a de-escalation of tensions that have built-up over the past year as opposed to a truer effort to break down trade walls and costs. Still, it hints
Macro Observations
While tariffs and global trade have probably the biggest theme of Trump’s second term in the White House, his ongoing personal battle with Fed Chair Jerome Powell may not be far behind. The basis for the conflict is Trump’s belief that the Fed has been too stringent lately
Macro Observations
And just like that, the trade war is back on! Just this week, President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil and a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. The reasons for the tariffs are quite varied. Copper tariffs are because of national
Macro Observations
The market got two pieces of labor market data this week. First was the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the more popular non-farm payroll report on Friday. The latter obviously gets more attention, but the June numbers were particularly interesting this time around because they potentially presented a
Macro Observations
It’s probably no secret that Donald Trump doesn’t like Jerome Powell. He has railed against him both privately and publicly, calling him “dumb”, “terrible” and “hard-headed”. And that’s just in the past three days. As I alluded to in yesterday’s high yield report, if Trump
Macro Observations
The Preponderance Of Evidence Suggests Rate Hikes Should Be On The Table
Macro Observations
A trade deal between the U.S. and China was supposed to be one of the things that would mark a return to normalcy for the markets and maybe even ignite the next leg of the bull market. Even though we got one this week (who knows what’s actually
Macro Observations
2025 has been a year filled with what one could charitably describe as “worry”. Around Trump’s inauguration, he re-emphasized his America First agenda with a series of policy announcements centered around protectionist trade and economic policies. His trade war has blanketed most of the United States’ biggest global
Macro Observations
The markets were dealt a bit of a surprise this week when the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked President Trump from imposing his sweeping reciprocal tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act only for an appeals court to reverse the ruling 24 hours later. What that
Macro Observations
Japan is in trouble. There’s just no nice way to put it. For years, the Bank of Japan flooded the system with liquidity in hopes of ramping up consumer demand and stimulating growth. As long as inflation remained under control, they could justify continuing down the path and throwing
Macro Observations
With President Trump’s abrupt about-face on tariff policy in China, it looks like both consumers and investors can breathe a sigh of relief. The idea of 145% tariffs on one of the world’s largest trade partners was always going to be unsustainable without sending the U.S.