Macro Observations
To Cut Or Not To Cut
The Preponderance Of Evidence Suggests Rate Hikes Should Be On The Table
Macro Observations
Macro Observations
The Dollar vs. Treasury Yields: One Of Them Is About To Give
A trade deal between the U.S. and China was supposed to be one of the things that would mark a return to normalcy for the markets and maybe even ignite the next leg of the bull market. Even though we got one this week (who knows what’s actually
Macro Observations
Tariffs, Debt & A Broken Dollar: A U.S. Crisis Of Confidence
2025 has been a year filled with what one could charitably describe as “worry”. Around Trump’s inauguration, he re-emphasized his America First agenda with a series of policy announcements centered around protectionist trade and economic policies. His trade war has blanketed most of the United States’ biggest global
Macro Observations
With Tariffs Still Unsettled, Deregulation Should Be Trump’s Next Target
The markets were dealt a bit of a surprise this week when the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked President Trump from imposing his sweeping reciprocal tariffs under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act only for an appeals court to reverse the ruling 24 hours later. What that
Macro Observations
Japan Is Looking Like A Ticking Time Bomb
Japan is in trouble. There’s just no nice way to put it. For years, the Bank of Japan flooded the system with liquidity in hopes of ramping up consumer demand and stimulating growth. As long as inflation remained under control, they could justify continuing down the path and throwing
Macro Observations
The New Bull Case: Small-Caps & Deregulation
With President Trump’s abrupt about-face on tariff policy in China, it looks like both consumers and investors can breathe a sigh of relief. The idea of 145% tariffs on one of the world’s largest trade partners was always going to be unsustainable without sending the U.S.
Macro Observations
Unpopular Opinion: The Fed Might Not Cut Rates At All In 2025
This week, the U.S. and the U.K. announced an “historic” trade deal that will dial back tariff rates for both nations while simultaneously easing trade conditions for British car exports and the agriculture market for both countries. We’ve been promised a huge number of trade deals for
Macro Observations
Powell Is Really In A Jam Now
Three critical economic reports were released this past week - the first read on Q1 GDP, the first read on quarterly core PCE prices and the ADP employment report (with the more important non-farm payroll numbers coming on Friday). As I’ve mentioned before, we’re approaching a very critical
Macro Observations
Trump Blinks On Tariffs
Here’s How 3 Asset Classes Might Move Now
Macro Observations
How The Yen Breaks This Market
(And Why Gold Could Be Its Biggest Victim)
Macro Observations
Forget Trump; Japan Is Still The Real Risk
The reverse yen carry trade, part 2
Macro Observations
Let’s Talk About That Crazy Liberation Day In The Markets
Happy Liberation Day! For most investors, the only thing they’re getting liberated from is the money in their portfolios. If Trump’s tariffs had ended up being roughly what the market expected, I think we could have very well seen a neutral or even a positive reaction from risk