Weekly Signals
Full Risk-On
All four intermarket signals agree: offense is the play. Trend, rotation, and commodities all aligned.
Weekly Signals
Weekly Signals
A Market Divided
Key Takeaways * The Beta Rotation signal (XLU/SPY 4-week RoC of +1.65%) remains Risk-Off for the sixth consecutive week. Despite the S&P 500’s 3.4% weekly rally, utilities maintained their relative edge. XLU at $46.34 continues to attract defensive flows, reflecting persistent uncertainty
Weekly Signals
Green Lights, One Yellow
Three of four signals favor risk-on positioning, though one holdout warrants attention.
Weekly Signals
A Market Divided
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Weekly Signals
Bracing for Impact
Signal Summary Week Ending March 30, 2026 | By Michael A. Gayed, CFA Key Takeaways • The Beta Rotation signal (XLU/SPY 4-week RoC of +3.33%) remains Risk-Off for the fifth consecutive week. XLU at $45.59 rebounded modestly from last week’s $44.65 level, while SPY at
Weekly Signals
Below the Line
Three of four signals favor safety as the S&P 500 breaks further below its 200-day moving average. Gold's crash drives the lone Risk-On reading.
Weekly Signals
Defensive Tide Rising
Three of four signals favor safety. The S&P 500 has broken its 200-day moving average — and the lone Risk-On reading is gold's crash, not improving fundamentals.
Weekly Signals
The Signals Saw It Coming
Three of four risk-off signals front-ran the geopolitical shock. The US-Iran conflict and resulting oil spike were the event risk that Utilities, Treasuries, and Gold had been pricing in for weeks.
Weekly Signals
When the AI Boom Becomes a Credit Event
Why Duration Could Win the Next Cycle
Weekly Signals
Risk-Off Isn’t Dead: The Resurgence of Classic Defensive Asset Correlations
How Utilities and Long-Duration Treasuries Are Quietly Signaling That Growth Fears—Not Inflation—Are Back in Control
Weekly Signals
Will the Gold and Silver Crash Bring Back Treasuries as the Risk-Off Trade of Choice?
Key Highlights * Gold and silver suffered historic single-day collapses after an extended speculative surge. * The crash followed a sharp reversal in U.S. dollar strength and interest-rate expectations. * Policy credibility and shifting Federal Reserve leadership played a central role in the reversal. * Precious metals revealed vulnerabilities when positioned
Weekly Signals
Defensive Positioning Preceded the News
Is This Really About Greenland?