Weekly Signals
Lumber’s price swings have long served as an early read on the economy’s health. Because it’s central to homebuilding, lumber demand often rises and falls before broader economic shifts appear in GDP or employment data. As economist Edward Leamer once wrote, housing is “the most important sector
Weekly Signals
My 2014 study showed that utilities do better than other stocks in the weeks leading up to vol spikes, providing an early warning smart money is getting ready for a move to defense.[1] Friday’s sell-off (Oct. 10, 2025) confirmed in dramatic fashion. The chart above — a plot
Weekly Signals
Gold has long been seen as the ultimate risk-off asset — it climbs when markets tumble. But for the past two years, it has not acted that way. Gold has risen along with equities or lagged while under stress. Its recent rush toward $4,000 an ounce smacks of speculative
Weekly Signals
My award-winning research from 2014 showed that utility stocks typically outperform the broader stock market in advance of market volatility. Utilities are the perfect example of a low-beta, interest-rate-sensitive, non-cyclical sector. During times of risk-off, investors are drawn to them because their dividends and
Weekly Signals
How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-
Weekly Signals
Intermediate Still Sends Warning
Weekly Signals
How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-
Weekly Signals
How To Interpret the Signals: Within each strategy, there is a risk-on and risk-off investment recommendation, with the risk-off option being the more conservative of the two. When a particular signal indicates that investors should be risk-off, for example, subscribers should consider investing in the risk-
Weekly Signals
But Risk Signals Still Mixed
Weekly Signals
Housing In Trouble?
Weekly Signals
No Major Narrative Changes
Weekly Signals
And A Never-Ending Story