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The Warsh Test, Round Two: Hiking Into a Bond Rally
The Fed promised one more hike. Oil, jobs, credit spreads and a sudden bond rally now argue for patience. What the dots, the 2-year yield and breakevens say heading into the Oct. 28 decision.
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The Fed Is Hiking Into a Credit Boom. Business Loans Are Up 10%.
Business loans are growing 10% a year, the fastest since March 2023, while banks have stopped tightening and the Fed raises rates. Two readings of the same number.
Mortgage Rates Hit 7.4%. The 10-Year Did Most of It.
The mortgage rate rose 113 basis points in a year and the 10-year yield rose 115, so the gap barely changed. Over the last five weeks, half the jump was spread.