Macro Observations
The BDC Bubble Hiding in Plain Sight
Yield as Sedation: How a 13% Coupon Silences the Questions Consensus No Longer Wants to Ask
Macro Observations
Macro Observations
When the Top 10 Carry the Tape
Breadth, Concentration, and the Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
Macro Observations
The Yen, the BOJ, and the Global Liquidity Lever Everyone Forgets Until It Snaps
A Wide Rate Gap, a Yen Back at the 160 Line, and the One Episode From August 2024 the Consensus Has Already Filed Away
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A Trillion Dollars in the Ground
What the AI Capex Cycle Has in Common With Every Buildout That Came Before It
Macro Observations
The Fed Already Told You
The June Summary of Economic Projections Is the Stagflation Admission Consensus Refuses to Read
Macro Observations
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time If you have been enjoying the free Lead-Lag Report, here are three paywalled pieces from the last few weeks that free readers consistently ask me about. 1) A Market Divided (2)Markets are sending a split signal across styles and
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
The Rate Hike Paradox
Markets just priced 70% odds of a Fed HIKE — and ran eight straight up-weeks anyway. The duration playbook just broke.
Macro Observations
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time
If you missed a few paywalled pieces this month, here are 3 from the archive worth your time. Two cities, two nights, last seats — Boston tomorrow, NYC ThursdayIf you have been wondering why equities can rally even as rate expectations rise, this frames the positioning setup and the risk signal