Closing Thoughts
The Miss, the Message, and the Market That Refused
When the weakest jobs report of the year buys equities a rally and the bond market nothing at all, what exactly is the equity market rallying into?
Weekly
Global View
Four Central Banks Went Four Ways This Month. Every Long End Went the Same Way.
The Fed, the ECB and the BoJ all hiked in September, the BoE held, and China eased. The 10-year ends of the US, Germany and Japan all climbed anyway. The risk being priced is fiscal, not monetary.
Global View
The Fed’s First Hike in Three Years, and Copper Went Right Back to Its Record
The Fed delivered its first hike in three years and the 10-year brushed 5%, the BoJ went to its highest rate since 1995 and the yen kept sliding, and copper ignored all of it, climbing back within 1.1% of its record while gold snapped its losing streak.
Global View
Copper Went Quiet, and the Fed Is About to Hike Into a Supply Shock
Oil's +76% run is a supply shock — the U.S. struck Iranian tankers, the SPR is at 1982 lows — and central banks are hiking into it, while copper stays flat a third straight week.
Global View
The Divergence Broke: Gold Gave It All Back and Copper Held
Two of the Aug 26 thesis's three legs broke and one held. Gold gave it all back, WTI ripped, and copper stayed flat — the arbiter I flagged last week is the one that mattered.
Global View
Gold Recovered Seven Percent. Brent Collapsed. Only One Of Those Is Macro.
Gold's strongest close since January and Brent's supply-driven unwind are not the same trade — and copper says the growth scare is fake.
Weekly
Rally Broadens Slightly: XLE Confirms Week 4 Leadership, GLD Flips Back to Leader, XLU Framework Check Deeply Broken
SPY +2.0% to $773. XLU 4W ROC -8.58% (Framework Check broken week 3). XLE Notable +1.02σ week 4 confirmed. GLD flips back to Leader. Rotation broadens but stays narrow. Run #26: 5 of 6 forward calls correct.