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Weekly
SPY +2.0% to $773. XLU 4W ROC -8.58% (Framework Check broken week 3). XLE Notable +1.02σ week 4 confirmed. GLD flips back to Leader. Rotation broadens but stays narrow. Run #26: 5 of 6 forward calls correct.
Weekly Signals
Every intermarket signal stays on offense. Trend, rotation, commodities, and Treasury behavior remain unanimously aligned with risk.
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Macro Observations
The CBOE SKEW index closed at 150 on July 22, its 96th percentile reading since 1990, while the VIX sat near 16 — a divergence, not a coincidence.
Sponsored
Federal net interest hit $970 billion in fiscal 2025 — 18.5% of federal receipts, the highest share since the data begins in 1940 and above the 1991 peak.
Macro Observations
The aggregate delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans at all commercial banks sits near 1.56% as of the first quarter of 2026 — close to a cycle low, and the number consensus points to when it says CRE risk is contained.
Macro Observations
The consensus says dollar liquidity is abundant. The plumbing says otherwise. The JPY basis is double its post-COVID average, foreign central banks are rebuilding buffers at the Fed, and FIMA repo drew twice after years of dormancy. The shortage builds in the basis before it breaks open.
Macro Observations
Money market fund balances peak after equity tops, not before. In 2008-2009 they peaked as stocks bottomed. The sidelines narrative reverses the direction of the arrow.
TappAlpha
TDAX applies a ~1.3× daily leveraged wrapper to TDAQ's Nasdaq-100 0DTE covered call engine, with weekly distributions. A look at the current volatility regime and why the setup fits this wrapper.
Macro Observations
Why the 24.7% headline collapses to 16.8% without two names. Cap-weight breadth, sector-level earnings decay, and the concentration risk the composite is quietly hiding.