Macro Observations
The Warsh Regime
Hawkish Hold as Doctrine, Not Data Point
Latest
Macro Observations
The BDC Bubble Hiding in Plain Sight
Yield as Sedation: How a 13% Coupon Silences the Questions Consensus No Longer Wants to Ask
Macro Observations
When the Top 10 Carry the Tape
Breadth, Concentration, and the Risk Hiding in Plain Sight
Macro Observations
The Yen, the BOJ, and the Global Liquidity Lever Everyone Forgets Until It Snaps
A Wide Rate Gap, a Yen Back at the 160 Line, and the One Episode From August 2024 the Consensus Has Already Filed Away
Newsletter
Gold Refused the Peace Trade But Couldn't Refuse the Dot Plot
The $4,320 floor broke at last — not on Hormuz, but on Warsh's dot plot. The gold-refusal decoupling enters its T+7 inflection.
Newsletter
The Lead-Lag Advisor Portal Is Live
Limited early access is now open for advisors in the Lead-Lag network.
Newsletter
Live Today 12 PM ET — Is the Commodities Bull Market Over? (1.0 CFP CE, Sponsored by GraniteShares)
A live 60-minute CE webinar today at 12:00 PM ET with Matt Lamb, CAIA of GraniteShares. 1.0 hour of CFP Board–approved continuing education. Register: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_ThxW8AoxR9KWnOqF_7Eytw THE SETUP Commodities have been one of the most divisive trades in 2026.
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A Trillion Dollars in the Ground
What the AI Capex Cycle Has in Common With Every Buildout That Came Before It
Macro Observations
The Fed Already Told You
The June Summary of Economic Projections Is the Stagflation Admission Consensus Refuses to Read