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What Credit Is Saying That Equity Isn't Hearing
The Headline Spread Looks Calm. The Plumbing Underneath It Does Not.
Latest
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The Private Credit Machine Is Cracking Where No One Is Looking
Apollo's Q2 Redemption Requests Nearly Doubled Q1's. The KBRA Default Index Just Matched Its All-Time High. The Reckoning Everyone Called Six Months Ago Is Now Compounding.
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The Quiet Unwind: EEM/XLK/Financials Reclaim Leadership, Defensive Extreme Fades, Fed Watch Looms
EEM/SPY +1.96% Leads; XLV/SPY -1.94% Worst Laggard; No Z-Scores Above |1.0|; JNK/GOVT Narrows +0.17%; FOMC Jul 29
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Jobs Cracked, Yields Climbed, Credit Stayed Calm
What happens when the Fed loses its labor argument but the bond market refuses to celebrate?
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Why I'm Sitting Down With Tuttle, Stansberry, and a Practicing Advisor on July 8
Forty years ago, Harry Browne wrote that an investor should not need to predict the next economic regime in order to survive it.
High Yield Spotlight
The CLO Income Play That Doesn't Blow Up
How the Panagram BBB-B CLO ETF delivers a 7.5% yield with a floating-rate profile that thrives in a higher-for-longer world.
Global View
A Record Quarter, a 40-Year Yen Low, and a Refuted Peace Trade: Q3 Has Begun
The dot plot beat the peace trade at T+7, exactly as titled. A record quarter and a 40-year yen low now set Q3 terms.
Newsletter
The Preferred Stock Trade Most Allocators Are Still Sleepwalking Past
Live today at 2:00 PM ET with Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital — 40 minutes, live Q&A, 1 CFP CE credit approved
Macro Observations
Every Equity Crisis Was a Currency Crisis First
Fifty years of market history says the tape doesn't break until the money breaks. The signals are already blinking.
Weekly Signals
Defensive Sweep: XLV +4.6σ Best Sector Signal in Years, Tech Crushed -2σ, Framework Flips Risk-Off, Credit Confirms
XLV +7.8% Best Week Since 2022; XLK -5.3%; XLU +3.9%; Russell Holds; WTI -9.6%; JNK/GOVT -1.5σ CONFIRMING
Weekly Signals
A Market at the Edge
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Macro Observations