Weekly Signals
A Market Divided Against Itself
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Michael A. Gayed, CFA
CFA charterholder. Founder of Lead-Lag Media. Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report. 5x Dow & NAAIM Founders Award winner for research on intermarket signals.
Closing Thoughts
Semis Sank. Banks Blew Out. Iran Got Loud.
When credit refuses to confirm a sell-off and geopolitics refuses to stay in the background, which signal is the market actually telling you to trust?
Macro Observations
The Fed Isn't Data-Dependent. The Fed Is Treasury-Dependent.
Powell isn't waiting on inflation. He's waiting on an issuance machine that cannot survive a front-end cut. The Fed's reaction function has been captured by Treasury issuance mechanics — and the falsification condition is watchable.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Reverse Carry Trade That Broke 2008
How the Unwinding of a Trillion-Dollar Yen Position Turned a Subprime Loss Into a Global Crash
Backfilled from Substack Archive
TODAY - The Factor Investing Lie: Why Most Smart Beta Strategies Leak Risk
CE Credit Webinar Tomorrow
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Pipes That Power AI, Repriced: A Renamed, Restructured Bet on Energy Infrastructure
Kayne Anderson's flagship midstream fund has been rebranded, switched to a monthly and 20% higher distribution, and rallied 39% this year, yet the discount to NAV has widened rather than closed.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Factor Investing Lie: Why Most Smart Beta Strategies Leak Risk — Live With Jason Hsu, July 16
CE Credit Webinar Tomorrow
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Contradiction: Cool CPI, Hot Oil, Korean Bear
A cool June CPI told the Fed to stand down the same week an Iran blockade, a Korean bear, and IBM's worst day ever said otherwise.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Rotation Confirmed: Defensive Names Reclaim Leadership, EEM/XLK/Gold Unwind, Risk-Off Signal Accelerates
XLU +2.60% 4W ROC (Risk-Off Week 3); XLF +1.0σ Notable; EEM/XLK Flip to Laggard; JNK/GOVT +0.69% Confirms Credit Stable
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Inflection Point Nobody Wants to Call
Signals are split evenly between offense and defense, pointing to a market at an inflection point.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
The Memory Behind the AI Trade: SK Hynix Comes to Nasdaq
What the dominant HBM supplier's Nasdaq debut means — and the new 2x daily long/short ETFs (SKUU, SKDD) that trade around it starting today.
Backfilled from Substack Archive
Iran Struck. Oil Spiked. Vol Refused to Panic.
Is the vol-selling machine still bigger than the geopolitical shock function?