Newsletter
Gold Refused the Peace Trade But Couldn't Refuse the Dot Plot
The $4,320 floor broke at last — not on Hormuz, but on Warsh's dot plot. The gold-refusal decoupling enters its T+7 inflection.
Latest
Newsletter
The Lead-Lag Advisor Portal Is Live
Limited early access is now open for advisors in the Lead-Lag network.
Newsletter
Live Today 12 PM ET — Is the Commodities Bull Market Over? (1.0 CFP CE, Sponsored by GraniteShares)
A live 60-minute CE webinar today at 12:00 PM ET with Matt Lamb, CAIA of GraniteShares. 1.0 hour of CFP Board–approved continuing education. Register: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_ThxW8AoxR9KWnOqF_7Eytw THE SETUP Commodities have been one of the most divisive trades in 2026.
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
A Trillion Dollars in the Ground
What the AI Capex Cycle Has in Common With Every Buildout That Came Before It
Macro Observations
The Fed Already Told You
The June Summary of Economic Projections Is the Stagflation Admission Consensus Refuses to Read
Closing Thoughts for the Week
Peace Broke Out, So Did The Hawks: Why Lower Oil Did Not Buy The Cut
Was the most important number this week the Brent print or the new dot plot, and what does it mean when both signals point against the same easing trade?
Leaders-Laggards
Warsh's First Strike: Hawkish Hold Sends EEM and Russell To Extremes, Energy Goes From Hero To Worst Performer
Warsh Kills Cuts; EEM +1.81σ Extreme; Russell +2.03%; XLE -5.86% Worst Sector; Lumber/Gold +8.11%; Credit Diverging Now
Macro Observations
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time If you have been enjoying the free Lead-Lag Report, here are three paywalled pieces from the last few weeks that free readers consistently ask me about. 1) A Market Divided (2)Markets are sending a split signal across styles and
High Yield Spotlight
The Best BDC Money Can Buy — And Why You Have to Pay Up for It
Main Street Capital (NYSE: MAIN) — Monthly Income That Grows, NAV That Compounds, and a Premium You Either Accept or Walk Away From