Macro Observations
The Rate Hike Paradox
Markets just priced 70% odds of a Fed HIKE — and ran eight straight up-weeks anyway. The duration playbook just broke.
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Newsletter
A Conversation on the AI Trade Most Portfolios Are Missing — Monday June 1 @ 2pm ET
The AI conversation has fixated on the same six names for two years. Matt Tuttle thinks the more interesting layer sits one step beneath the hyperscalers — in the **physical infrastructure** that AI cannot exist without. On Monday, June 1 at 2:00 PM ET, Matt joins the Lead-Lag team
Macro Observations
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time
If you missed a few paywalled pieces this month, here are 3 from the archive worth your time. Two cities, two nights, last seats — Boston tomorrow, NYC ThursdayIf you have been wondering why equities can rally even as rate expectations rise, this frames the positioning setup and the risk signal
Newsletter
When You Want More of a Good Thing: A Leveraged Take on Daily Income
How the T-Squared Lift Series Applies 1.3× Exposure to a Daily 0DTE Covered Call Strategy on SPY
High Yield Spotlight
The 12% Monthly Paycheck That the IRS Can't Touch Until You Sell
NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF (CBOE: SPYI) — $10 Billion in Assets, 12% Yield, and a Tax Structure That Changes the Income Equation
Global View
Three Round Numbers and a Memorial Day Airstrike
Dow 50,000. Nikkei 65,000. KOSPI 8,000. NVDA prints the best quarter in semiconductor history — and U.S. jets struck Iran, Bitcoin ETF flows went sharply negative, and gold confirmed a 15% correction.
Newsletter
WHEN SPREADS ARE TIGHT, INFLATION IS HOT, AND THE CURVE IS STEEPENING — WHY CREDIT ROTATION CAN’T BE STATIC (ATACX)
KEY HIGHLIGHTS · **April CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.8% y/y**, while **core CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y** — a mix that keeps policy uncertainty elevated.[1] · **High yield option-adjusted spreads sit near 2.82%** (latest), a level that implies credit
Newsletter
WHEN THE CURVE RE-STEEPENS AND SPREADS STAY QUIET, CREDIT RISK IS HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT (ATACX)
KEY HIGHLIGHTS · **Headline CPI rose 0.6% m/m and 3.8% y/y in April**, while **core CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 2.8% y/y**—a reminder that inflation volatility is back in the driver’s seat.[1] · The **10Y–2Y Treasury spread is back to
Leaders-Laggards
Markets Price 70% Odds Of A Rate HIKE, Yet S&P Runs An Eighth Straight Up-Week
Fed Minutes Reveal Members Anticipate Hikes If Inflation Persists; Kevin Warsh Sworn In As Fed Chair Friday; S&P +0.9%, Russell 2000 +2.7% Leads, Tech +3.5% Reasserts; Brent Oil -4% On Iran Whipsaw
Weekly Signals
Three Weeks Aligned
Every intermarket signal stays on offense for a third straight week. Trend, rotation, commodities, and Treasury behavior remain unanimously aligned with risk.
Macro Observations
A 30% off annual code, this weekend only
Macro Observations
Weekend reading: 3 from the archive worth your time
3 from the archive worth your time (all paywalled): 1) URGENT - Doors Close at Noon ET: 1 CFP CE Credit on the 351 ExchangeIf you care about positioning, flows, and how macro narratives get priced, this is a useful one to revisit.Read: https://www.leadlagreport.com/p/urgent-doors-