Macro Observations

Macro Observations

The Reverse Carry Trade: The Yen Apocalypse (A Comic)

The Yen Apocalypse, told as a 24-page comic. The reverse carry trade unwinds, the Bank of Japan blinks, and the global liquidity pipe finally gets pulled. What follows is the visual version of every macro warning I have been writing for the last two years. Scroll all the way

Macro Observations

A 30% off annual code, this weekend only

Macro Observations

Why I'm pushing the annual plan tonight

Quick note - and the only one I'll send like this. The Lead-Lag Report has two paid options: Monthly: $39/month - which is $468/year if you stay on it. Annual: $320/year - a flat $148 less than the monthly plan annualized. If you've been reading

Macro Observations

Last call -- and the math on going annual

This is the last email in this sequence, so I’ll be straightforward. You’ve been reading the free version of this newsletter, which means you understand the intermarket framework, you follow the macro narrative, and you’ve seen enough to know the analysis is serious. If it weren’t,

Macro Observations

Mid-week signals check: Gold backs off the Risk-Off flip

The Lumber/Gold signal that flipped on Monday is already getting tested. Here is what changed.

Macro Observations

The Credit-Equity Divergence: What 285 Basis Points Is Telling You That 7,000 Isn't

The S&P 500 just crossed a round number. Corporate credit already told you how this ends. Stop watching the wrong market.

Macro Observations

Here's what this week's signal table looks like

I want to show you something. Every week, paid subscribers receive a signal dashboard that looks roughly like this: Signal | Trend (13-Week) | Current Reading Lumber / Gold | Up | Strong Copper / Gold | Up | Strong High Yield / Treasuries | Up | Strong Utilities / S&P 500 | Up | Strong Composite | Up | Strong You can

Macro Observations

The cost of missing one signal

Let me give you a specific number. In September 2025, three of the four primary intermarket signals in the paid dashboard shifted to risk-off. The Lumber/Gold ratio had already broken down weeks earlier — a signal I’ve tracked as a leading indicator of growth expectations for years. Paid

Macro Observations

What 10,000 paying subscribers already know

More than 10,000 people pay for this newsletter every month. A meaningful portion of them are financial advisors, portfolio managers, and institutional allocators. These are not people who pay for content casually. They’ve decided the intermarket signal framework here is worth incorporating into their process. Here’s what

Macro Observations

Stagflation With $39 Trillion in Debt Isn’t the 1970s. It’s a Depression.

There Is No Volcker Option When the Government Owes More Than the Economy Produces

Macro Observations

The Strait, the Yen, and the Unwind Nobody Sees Coming

Oil Priced in Yen Is the Real Tail Risk — and Japan’s Political Class Is Asleep at the Wheel

Macro Observations

Oil Is Inflationary. Until It Becomes Deflationary.

The speed of the move in crude determines whether it feeds inflation expectations or destroys demand. History is unambiguous about which one precedes recession.