Macro Observations
Reserves are large in dollars but thin relative to the system they must finance. SRF activation and repo spreads show the Fed's ample-reserves cushion is smaller than the headline balance implies.
Macro Observations
A positive slope is a funding condition, not proof that growth has absorbed the baton. The August 2026 curve is positive again, but the payroll and credit data have not yet confirmed the handoff.
Macro Observations
Credit reports are catching up to the payment pause, but the real macro hit arrives later
Macro Observations
New issuance can make the maturity schedule look safer while quietly transferring the problem into coupons, covenants, and weaker borrowers
Macro Observations
Equity volatility is compressed to multi-year lows while the funding currency of the global carry trade is signaling a regime change. The yen is not a currency story. It is a leverage-in-the-system story that ends with a coordinated deleveraging event.
Macro Observations
The Treasury's real reaction function is not GDP or unemployment. It is the term premium on the 10-year. If long yields spike into an auction cycle, the administration will tolerate equity drawdowns rather than let the bond market break.
Macro Observations
Japan is not a passive holder of US Treasuries. Japan is the marginal setter of long-end yields, and the reverse carry trade unwind is a forced-selling mechanism that policymakers cannot stop with rate cuts or QE.
Macro Observations
Credit card balances 90+ days delinquent hit 13.12 percent in Q1 2026, closing in on the 13.74 percent 2010 record. Auto loans are already at a series-record 5.60 percent. High yield spreads are at 287 basis points. The household ledger has already turned. Corporate credit is still pricing the calm.
Macro Observations
The BLS diffusion index printed 54.4 in June 2026, identical to the full-year 2007 average. Payroll breadth spent nine of twelve months of 2025 below 50. One industry, health care, is generating 86 percent of net US job growth. Every one of those facts is public. Almost nobody is quoting them.
Macro Observations
Central banks bought 243.7 tonnes of gold in Q1 2026, only about 16 tonnes were officially reported. Real yields at 2.44 percent sit at 2008 highs while gold prints records. The old model of gold as anti-real-yield has stopped working. The buyers are not who the equity crowd thinks.
Macro Observations
Standing Repo Facility takeup hit $31.5 billion on December 31, 2025. SOFR traded above IORB on 31 days in Q4 alone. The relief did not come from the backstop. The Fed stopped runoff December 1 and began buying $40 billion of bills a month December 12. Read the sequence, not the label.
Macro Observations
Federal interest just passed defense. Debt-to-GDP exceeded the WWII peak in peacetime. The foreign buyer base is disassembling. And a democratic socialist just took NYC. These are not separate stories. They are the same story, upstream and downstream.